Agent Lab — a live forecast exhibit · Applied AI
← Group I
Group I · NOR · outside top-16

Norway

Strength
78.5
± 2.0
Attack
81.3
0–100
Defense
76.4
0–100
P(champion)
0.98%
2.6% reach final
Strength trajectory
74.7 → 78.4 · +3.7
2023-03-31 range 74.4–78.4 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.98%
to lift
Polymarket
5.9%
implied · -5.0pp
Kalshi
6.2%
implied · -5.3pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-07-09.

Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
20.9%
R16
36.4%
Quarter
15.7%
Semi
6.6%
Final
2.6%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data
Home venue
Ullevaal Stadion
Oslo · 27,182 seats (WC avg 55,865; -28,683)
Age profile
mean 25.9 / WC 27.0
U-22 22–25 26–29 30–33 34+
Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).
GK Goalkeepers · 3
  • 1 Ø. Nyland €900k 35 yr
    Sevilla · La Liga
    78 caps · 28 since 2024 (6.972413793103448rtg)
  • 13 E. Selvik €1.3M 28 yr
    Watford · Championship
    8 caps · 6 since 2024 (6.6174311926605505rtg)
  • 12 S. Tangvik 23 yr
    Rosenborg · Eliteserien
DEF Defenders · 10
  • 3 K. Ajer €16.0M 27 yr
    Brentford · Premier League
    59 caps · 3G · 26 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.885454545454546rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.66 rtg
  • 26 J. Ryerson €20.0M 28 yr
    Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga
    49 caps · 2G · 27 since 2024 (2G/10A · 7.1215625000000005rtg)  |  club 0G · 15A · 7.11 rtg
  • 4 L. Østigård €10.0M 26 yr
    Genoa · Serie A
    44 caps · 2G · 25 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.221764705882353rtg)  |  club 5G · 1A · 7.23 rtg
  • 16 M. Pedersen €3.5M 25 yr
    Torino · Serie A
    37 caps · 1G · 16 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.704741379310345rtg)  |  club 1G · 2A · 6.56 rtg
  • 5 D. Møller Wolfe €4.5M 23 yr
    Wolves · Premier League
    29 caps · 2G · 28 since 2024 (2G/4A · 6.932914046121593rtg)  |  club 0G · 2A · 6.57 rtg
  • 14 F. Aursnes 30 yr
    Benfica · Primeira Liga
    28 caps · 1G · 8 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.681818181818182rtg)  |  club 3G · 2A · 7.16 rtg
  • 15 F. Bjørkan €1.8M 27 yr
    Bodo/Glimt · Eliteserien
    23 caps · 1G · 11 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.184615384615384rtg)  |  club 3G · 2A · 7.43 rtg
  • 17 T. Heggem €13.0M 26 yr
    Bologna · Serie A
    22 caps · 22 since 2024 (6.737992125984253rtg)
+ 2 more in the broader pool
MID Midfielders · 8
  • 18 K. Thorstvedt €8.0M 26 yr
    Sassuolo · Serie A
    77 caps · 6G · 52 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.438rtg)  |  club 4G · 4A · 6.88 rtg
  • 10 M. Ødegaard 27 yr
    Arsenal · Premier League
    74 caps · 5G · 19 since 2024 (2G/14A · 7.237354988399073rtg)  |  club 1G · 6A · 7.01 rtg
  • 8 S. Berge €25.0M 27 yr
    Fulham · Premier League
    73 caps · 1G · 31 since 2024 (1G/7A · 7.129090909090909rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.89 rtg
  • 20 A. Nusa €32.0M 20 yr
    RB Leipzig · Bundesliga
    30 caps · 10G · 26 since 2024 (9G/4A · 7.0910761154855635rtg)  |  club 4G · 3A · 7.1 rtg
  • 6 P. Berg €4.5M 28 yr
    Bodo/Glimt · Eliteserien
    51 caps · 29 since 2024 (0G/2A · 7.045013477088948rtg)  |  club 5G · 12A · 7.89 rtg
  • 2 M. Thorsby €3.0M 29 yr
    Genoa · Serie A
    33 caps · 16 since 2024 (0G/3A · 6.237500000000001rtg)  |  club 2G · 1A · 6.62 rtg
  • 19 T. Aasgaard 23 yr
    Rangers · Premiership
    11 caps · 6G · 11 since 2024 (6G/2A · 7.414705882352941rtg)  |  club 7G · 4A · 7.02 rtg
  • 23 J. Hauge €2.5M 26 yr
    Bodo/Glimt · Eliteserien
    19 caps · 1G · 9 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.402500000000001rtg)  |  club 8G · 4A · 7.64 rtg
ATT Attackers · 5
  • 9 E. Haaland Top scorer €200.0M 25 yr
    Manchester City · Premier League
    56 caps · 64G · 27 since 2024 (37G/3A · 8.008333333333333rtg)  |  club 27G · 8A · 7.31 rtg
  • 7 A. Sørloth €20.0M 30 yr
    Atletico Madrid · La Liga
    85 caps · 28G · 28 since 2024 (11G/5A · 6.536855036855036rtg)  |  club 13G · 6.81 rtg
  • 11 J. Strand Larsen €40.0M 25 yr
    Wolves · Premier League
    30 caps · 8G · 19 since 2024 (5G/1A · 6.563953488372093rtg)  |  club 1G · 1A · 6.37 rtg
  • 22 Oscar Bobb €25.0M 22 yr
    Fulham · Premier League
    26 caps · 2G · 22 since 2024 (1G/2A · 7.175285171102661rtg)
  • 21 A. Schjelderup €14.0M 21 yr
    Benfica · Primeira Liga
    20 caps · 1G · 20 since 2024 (1G/6A · 7.1015625rtg)  |  club 7G · 5A · 7.33 rtg
Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾
DEF · additional
  • 24 S. Langås 24 yr
    Derby · 18c/1g
  • 25 H. Falchener 22 yr
    Viking · 2c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6
W 2–1 @ BRA
W 2–1 @ CIV
L 1–4 v FRA
W 3–2 v SEN
W 4–1 v IRQ
D 1–1 @ MAR

Group fixtures

4 matches
Date Match P(NOR win) P(draw) Shape

What the squad is worth

Squad market value
€459.8M
Rank in the field
11 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees.

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes
Weighted strength
75.1/100
vs model strength -3.4
Top-5 leagues
55%
Unrated leagues
0%
League Country Players Minutes share Strength
Premier League England 7 23.1% 100
Eliteserien Norway 5 23.1% 45
Serie A Italy 5 19.2% 88
Championship England 2 10.5% 55
Bundesliga Germany 2 8.2% 90
Primeira Liga Portugal 2 7.7% 70
La Liga Spain 2 4.6% 95
Premiership Scotland 1 3.5% 50

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-07-09 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -3.4 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Norway (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.