Projected bracket
One coherent path through the knockouts, conditioned on results played so far. Each round-of-32 seat is filled by the team most likely to claim it, then every later slot is contested by the winners of the two ties that feed it — so the bracket chains together as a single tournament rather than 15 independent guesses. The highlighted side is the model's favourite to advance; the percentage is its neutral-venue chance of going through. The chalk path crowns Spain (23.0% to win it all). Tap any slot for its head-to-head, path, and odds.
Pairings are projected until the groups resolve, so these slots carry the model's read only. The agent's per-match call and grade will appear as each knockout fixture is confirmed.
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This is a single chalk path: each round-of-32 seat takes its most-likely occupant, and from there the favourite advances at every tie, so the winner shown in one round is exactly the team carried into the next. It is one representative tournament, not the full distribution — many other paths are plausible, and a team's true odds of reaching a round fold in all of them. See probabilities for each team's full stage-by-stage odds and methodology for how the simulation works.