Agent Lab — a live forecast exhibit · Applied AI
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Group I · Matchday 12 · 2026-06-22

Norway vs Senegal

East Rutherford, United States · neutral venue

Full time NOR 3–2 SEN
The agent called Norway (42%) — Better than the model call right

The forecast below is what the agent published before kickoff.

Most likely scoreline
1–0 11.3%
38.6%
NOR win
26.6%
Draw
34.7%
SEN win
Top scorelines
  • 1–0 11.3%
  • 0–0 11.1%
  • 1–1 10.8%
  • 0–1 10.6%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest

The agent’s call

3-agent ensemble · deepseek-chat
NOR win
42.0%
Draw
28.7%
SEN win
29.3%

The model gives Norway a slight edge (39% home win) but the supplied intel strengthens that case: Norway's recent form is significantly better (+0.40 pts/match vs -0.56 for Senegal) against stronger opponents, and Norway's key players — especially Haaland — provide a clear attacking advantage. Squad values are nearly equal, so the talent gap is narrower than the form gap. I nudge Norway's win probability up from 39% to 42%, keeping draw and away win roughly in line with the prior, as the form and key-player signals are moderate but not overwhelming. The model's expected goals (Norway 1.20, Senegal 1.05) suggest a low-scoring match. Norway's attacking quality raises their goal expectation slightly, but Senegal's defense (no injuries) keeps it tight. The most likely scorelines are 1-0 and 1-1, consistent with a narrow Norway advantage.

What the agent weighed
What the agent chose to investigate
The agent decided what to check on tavily — 9 sources kept:
  • “Norway vs Senegal 2026-06-23 team news injuries suspensions” match · 3 hits
    Late fitness updates or suspensions could significantly alter lineup strength.
  • “Norway squad 2026 World Cup injuries” NOR · 3 hits
    Key player absences like Haaland or Ødegaard would change Norway's expected performance.
  • “Senegal squad 2026 World Cup injuries” SEN · 3 hits
    Key player absences like Mané or Koulibaly would change Senegal's expected performance.
Agent scorelines
generated 2026-06-22
Last 5 — NOR
+0.39 pts/match vs model expectation · opp. avg #28
  • NED #9 -0.7
  • SUI #16 -0.5
  • SWE #24 +1.2
  • MAR #11 +0.1
  • IRQ #80 +0.7
GF / GA last 10: 34 / 9
Last 5 — SEN
-0.60 pts/match vs model expectation · opp. avg #49
  • PER #42 +1.4
  • GAM #86 +0.5
  • USA #37 -1.4
  • KSA #74 -0.8
  • FRA #5 -0.8
GF / GA last 10: 16 / 11
Head-to-head (last 5)
  • 2006-03-01 Senegal 2–1 Norway
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
11.1
10.6
6.1
2.7
1.0
0.4
0.1
1
11.3
10.8
6.2
2.8
1.1
0.4
0.1
2
6.9
6.6
3.8
1.7
0.6
0.2
0.1
3
3.3
3.1
1.8
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
4
1.3
1.3
0.7
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.2
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

Rows = NOR goals; columns = SEN goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.

Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.28
NOR
1.18
SEN

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.

News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.