← Group F

Group F · NED

Netherlands

Strength

82.6

± 1.4

Attack

85.2

0–100

Defense

80.3

0–100

P(champion)

3.73%

8.4% reach final

Strength trajectory

82.5 → 82.4 · -0.1

2023-03-31 range 81.7–82.5 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

3.73%

to lift

Polymarket

0.1%

implied · +3.7pp

Kalshi

5.0%

implied · -1.2pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-07-09.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

49.6%

R16

46.4%

Quarter

30.5%

Semi

16.6%

Final

8.4%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Johan Cruijff ArenA

Amsterdam · 55,865 seats (WC avg 55,865; 0)

Age profile

mean 26.7 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 B. Verbruggen €35.0M 23 yr

Brighton · Premier League

34 caps · 30 since 2024 (7.198804780876493rtg)
23 M. Flekken €8.0M 32 yr

Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga

17 caps · 6 since 2024 (6.2rtg)
13 R. Roefs 22 yr

Sunderland · Premier League

1 cap · 1 since 2024 (6.3rtg)

DEF Defenders · 6

4 V. van Dijk Top minutes €18.0M 34 yr

Liverpool · Premier League

97 caps · 13G · 33 since 2024 (6G/1A · 7.38rtg) | club 6G · 7.28 rtg
5 N. Aké €18.0M 30 yr

Manchester City · Premier League

60 caps · 4G · 21 since 2024 (4G/2A · 6.594520547945206rtg)
6 J. van Hecke €35.0M 25 yr

Brighton · Premier League

17 caps · 1G · 17 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.658450704225352rtg) | club 3G · 3A · 7.26 rtg
12 M. Wieffer 26 yr

Brighton · Premier League

15 caps · 1G · 8 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.87rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 6.74 rtg
25 J. Hato €35.0M 19 yr

Chelsea · Premier League

10 caps · 9 since 2024 (6.463855421686747rtg)
2 L. Geertruida €32.0M 24 yr

—

MID Midfielders · 9

22 D. Dumfries €25.0M 29 yr

Inter · Serie A

72 caps · 10G · 26 since 2024 (5G/8A · 6.9875rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 6.62 rtg
21 F. de Jong 28 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

62 caps · 1G · 17 since 2024 (1G/3A · 7.195762711864407rtg) | club 1G · 5A · 7.29 rtg
14 T. Reijnders €65.0M 27 yr

Manchester City · Premier League

36 caps · 7G · 30 since 2024 (7G/3A · 6.5975rtg) | club 5G · 2A · 6.85 rtg
3 M. de Roon 34 yr

Atalanta · Serie A

40 caps · 1G · 4 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.3rtg) | club 1G · 2A · 7.04 rtg
20 T. Koopmeiners €28.0M 27 yr

Juventus · Serie A

32 caps · 3G · 13 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.641258741258741rtg)
8 R. Gravenberch €90.0M 23 yr

Liverpool · Premier League

34 caps · 1G · 21 since 2024 (1G/3A · 6.787344398340249rtg) | club 5G · 3A · 7.06 rtg
15 M. van de Ven €55.0M 24 yr

Tottenham · Premier League

25 caps · 1G · 23 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.76932668329177rtg) | club 4G · 1A · 6.73 rtg
26 Q. Timber €28.0M 24 yr

Feyenoord · Eredivisie

14 caps · 1G · 14 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.624050632911392rtg) | club 2G · 4A · 6.91 rtg

+ 1 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 8

10 M. Depay Top scorer 31 yr

Corinthians · Serie A

107 caps · 49G · 25 since 2024 (11G/7A · 6.666rtg) | club 6G · 3A · 6.97 rtg
11 C. Gakpo €70.0M 26 yr

Liverpool · Premier League

56 caps · 24G · 34 since 2024 (15G/7A · 7.7780442804428045rtg) | club 7G · 5A · 6.89 rtg
18 D. Malen €25.0M 26 yr

AS Roma · Serie A

53 caps · 12G · 29 since 2024 (8G/4A · 6.394080996884735rtg) | club 14G · 2A · 7.23 rtg
9 W. Weghorst €3.5M 33 yr

Ajax · Eredivisie

50 caps · 13G · 23 since 2024 (5G/1A · 6.895161290322581rtg) | club 8G · 4A · 6.83 rtg
19 B. Brobbey €20.0M 23 yr

Sunderland · Premier League

17 caps · 4G · 16 since 2024 (4G/1A · 7.336575875486381rtg) | club 7G · 1A · 6.63 rtg
17 N. Lang €25.0M 26 yr

Galatasaray · Süper Lig

17 caps · 3G · 7 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.7rtg) | club 0G · 3A · 7.01 rtg
7 J. Kluivert 26 yr

Bournemouth · Premier League

15 caps · 13 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.8306666666666676rtg) | club 2G · 6.54 rtg
24 C. Summerville 24 yr

West Ham · Premier League

7 caps · 2G · 7 since 2024 (2G/2A · 7.495876288659794rtg) | club 5G · 2A · 7.05 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

16 G. Til 28 yr

PSV Eindhoven · 8c/1g

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

D 1–1 vs MAR

W 3–1 v TUN

W 5–1 v SWE

D 2–2 v JPN

W 2–1 vs UZB

L 0–1 vs ALG

Group fixtures

4 matches

Date	Match	P(NED win)	P(draw)
2026-06-14	H vs Japan (JPN)	47.2%	25.4%
2026-06-20	H vs Sweden (SWE)	54.5%	22.1%
2026-06-25	A vs Tunisia (TUN)	62.3%	22.1%
2026-06-30	H vs Morocco (MAR)	45.6%	26.8%

What the squad is worth

Squad market value

€803.0M

Rank in the field

6 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees.

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

93.6/100

vs model strength +11.0

Top-5 leagues

86%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Premier League	England	15	65.2%	100
Serie A	Italy	4	13.6%	88
Eredivisie	Netherlands	3	10.1%	72
Bundesliga	Germany	1	3.9%	90
La Liga	Spain	1	3.0%	95
Serie A	Brazil	1	2.9%	70
Süper Lig	Turkey	1	1.3%	60

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-07-09 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs +11.0 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Netherlands (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.