Group F · Matchday 20 · 2026-06-30
Netherlands vs Morocco
Monterrey, nan
Full time
NED 1–1 MAR
The forecast below is what the agent published before kickoff.
Most likely scoreline
1–0
13.1%
45.6%
NED win
26.8%
Draw
27.6%
MAR win
Top scorelines
- 1–0 13.1%
- 0–0 12.0%
- 1–1 10.6%
- 0–1 9.8%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — NED
+0.31 pts/match
vs model expectation
· opp. avg #39
- ALG #33 -2.3
- UZB #69 +0.4
- JPN #18 -0.7
- SWE #24 +1.1
- TUN #53 +0.8
GF / GA last 10: 24 / 9
Last 5 — MAR
+0.38 pts/match
vs model expectation
· opp. avg #53
- MAD #110 +0.2
- NOR #19 -0.8
- BRA #3 +0.0
- SCO #39 +1.2
- HAI #96 +0.5
GF / GA last 10: 22 / 6
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2017-05-31 Morocco 1–2 Netherlands
- 1999-04-28 Netherlands 1–2 Morocco
- 1994-06-29 Morocco 1–2 Netherlands
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
12.0
9.8
4.8
1.8
0.6
0.2
0.0
1
13.1
10.6
5.2
2.0
0.7
0.2
0.1
2
8.6
7.0
3.4
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.0
3
4.4
3.6
1.7
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
1.9
1.6
0.8
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.8
0.6
0.3
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = NED goals; columns = MAR goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.4
NED
0.98
MAR
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.