Agent Lab — a live forecast exhibit · Applied AI
← Group H
Group H · CPV · outside top-16

Cape Verde

Strength
69.9
± 2.0
Attack
67.2
0–100
Defense
73.5
0–100
P(champion)
0.01%
0.1% reach final
Strength trajectory
67.3 → 68.3 · +1.0
2023-03-31 range 67.3–69.1 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.01%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · -0.0pp
Kalshi
0.1%
implied · -0.1pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-07-09.

Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
1.5%
R16
6.4%
Quarter
1.7%
Semi
0.3%
Final
0.1%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data
Home venue
Estádio Nacional de Cabo Verde
Praia · 15,000 seats (WC avg 55,865; -40,865)
Age profile
mean 28.7 / WC 27.0
U-22 22–25 26–29 30–33 34+
Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).
GK Goalkeepers · 3
  • 1 Vózinha 39 yr
    Chaves · Segunda Liga
    58 caps · 11 since 2024 (7.923076923076923rtg)
  • 12 Márcio Rosa 28 yr
    Montana · First League
    7 caps
  • 23 C. dos Santos €1.0M 25 yr
    San Diego · Major League Soccer
DEF Defenders · 9
  • 22 S. Moreira €1.5M 31 yr
    Columbus Crew · Major League Soccer
    56 caps · 48 since 2024 (0G/3A · 6.26rtg)  |  club 1G · 2A · 6.9 rtg
  • 4 Pico 33 yr
    Shamrock Rovers · Premier Division
    45 caps · 18 since 2024 (7.223076923076923rtg)  |  club 1G · 7.27 rtg
  • 3 Diney Borges €1.0M 30 yr
    Al Bataeh · Pro League
    28 caps · 4G · 9 since 2024 (3G/0A · 7.030769230769231rtg)
  • 2 Stopira 37 yr
    Torreense · Segunda Liga
    27 caps · 4G
  • 5 Logan Costa €18.0M 24 yr
    Villarreal · La Liga
    29 caps · 2G · 13 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.23rtg)
  • 8 João Paulo €900k 27 yr
    Oţelul · Liga I
    28 caps · 1G · 8 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.4192307692307695rtg)  |  club 1G · 3A · 7.16 rtg
  • 13 S. Lopes Cabral €4.0M 23 yr
    —
    24 caps · 2G · 23 since 2024 (2G/2A · 6.973426573426574rtg)  |  club 5G · 3A · 7.3 rtg
  • 24 Wagner Pina Top minutes €7.0M 23 yr
    Trabzonspor · Süper Lig
    9 caps · 7 since 2024 (6.9rtg)  |  club 0G · 7A · 6.96 rtg
+ 1 more in the broader pool
MID Midfielders · 11
  • 20 Ryan Mendes Top scorer €700k 36 yr
    Iğdır FK · 1. Lig
    77 caps · 23G · 15 since 2024 (5G/1A · 6.773111782477342rtg)  |  club 5G · 2A · 6.73 rtg
  • 11 Garry Rodrigues €325k 35 yr
    Apollon Limassol · 1. Division
    49 caps · 12G · 5 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.374025974025973rtg)  |  club 2G · 2A · 6.98 rtg
  • 26 Hélio Varela €1.2M 23 yr
    Maccabi Tel Aviv · Ligat Ha'al
    52 caps · 7G · 45 since 2024 (7G/4A · 6.838613861386139rtg)  |  club 3G · 2A · 6.88 rtg
  • 10 Jamiro Monteiro €750k 32 yr
    PEC Zwolle · Eredivisie
    43 caps · 4G · 11 since 2024 (4G/0A · 6.509187279151944rtg)  |  club 2G · 3A · 6.73 rtg
  • 6 Kevin Pina €4.5M 28 yr
    FC Krasnodar · Premier League
    43 caps · 4G · 30 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.09031339031339rtg)  |  club 1G · 6.94 rtg
  • 7 Jovane Cabral €800k 27 yr
    —
    46 caps · 2G · 33 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.656737588652482rtg)  |  club 7G · 1A · 7.04 rtg
  • 15 L. Duarte €1.0M 28 yr
    Puskas Academy · NB I
    40 caps · 2G · 34 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.481927710843373rtg)  |  club 0G · 5A · 6.88 rtg
  • 17 Willy Semedo €700k 31 yr
    Omonia Nicosia · 1. Division
    36 caps · 3G · 13 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.487692307692307rtg)  |  club 5G · 3A · 7.84 rtg
+ 3 more in the broader pool
ATT Attackers · 3
  • 19 D. Livramento €800k 24 yr
    Casa Pia · Primeira Liga
    48 caps · 6G · 44 since 2024 (4G/1A · 6.265142857142858rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.44 rtg
  • 9 Gilson Benchimol €650k 24 yr
    Akron · Premier League
    38 caps · 5G · 25 since 2024 (5G/1A · 6.276923076923077rtg)  |  club 8G · 6.74 rtg
  • 21 Nuno da Costa €800k 34 yr
    Başakşehir · Süper Lig
    6 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.473248407643312rtg)  |  club 3G · 1A · 6.65 rtg
Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾
DEF · additional
  • 25 Kelvin Pires 25 yr
    SJK · 2c
MID · additional
  • 14 Deroy Duarte 26 yr
    Ludogorets · 32c/1g
  • 18 Telmo Arcanjo 24 yr
    Guimaraes · 19c/1g
  • 16 Yannick Semedo 30 yr
    Farense · 11c/1g

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6
L 2–3 @ ARG
D 0–0 v KSA
D 2–2 v URU
D 0–0 v ESP
W 3–0 vs Bermuda
W 3–0 v Serbia

Group fixtures

3 matches
Date Match P(CPV win) P(draw) Shape
2026-06-15 A vs Spain (ESP) 6.4% 17.2%
2026-06-21 A vs Uruguay (URU) 13.7% 27.0%
2026-06-26 H vs Saudi Arabia (KSA) 33.6% 34.4%

What the squad is worth

21 of 26 valued
Squad market value
€50.0M
Rank in the field
38 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees. Values marked * are floored estimates where Transfermarkt publishes none.

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes
Weighted strength
50.7/100
vs model strength -19.2
Top-5 leagues
0%
Unrated leagues
0%
League Country Players Minutes share Strength
Major League Soccer USA 2 15.8% 50
Primeira Liga Portugal 4 15.0% 70
Süper Lig Turkey 2 9.5% 60
First League Bulgaria 2 7.9% 40
Premier Division Ireland 1 7.6% 40
Premier League Russia 2 6.8% 55
NB I Hungary 1 5.5% 42
1. Lig Turkey 1 5.3% 38
Segunda Liga Portugal 3 4.8% 45
Liga I Romania 1 4.6% 42
Ligat Ha'al Israel 1 4.4% 45
1. Division Cyprus 2 4.2% 38
Eredivisie Netherlands 1 3.6% 72
Pro League United-Arab-Emirates 1 2.8% 40
Veikkausliiga Finland 1 2.1% 42
La Liga Spain 1 0.1% 95

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-07-09 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -19.2 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

Current injury records in the latest feed: S. Lopes Cabral.

Sources

5 verified outlets for Cape Verde (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.