← Group D

Group D · TUR · outside top-16

Turkey

Strength

76.2

± 1.6

Attack

78.6

0–100

Defense

74.6

0–100

P(champion)

0.43%

1.4% reach final

Strength trajectory

75.0 → 76.3 · +1.3

2023-03-31 range 74.8–76.3 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.43%

to lift

Kalshi

0.1%

implied · +0.4pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-07-09.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

23.0%

R16

31.4%

Quarter

11.4%

Semi

4.0%

Final

1.4%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Atatürk Olympic Stadium

Istanbul · 75,145 seats (WC avg 55,865; +19,280)

Age profile

mean 26.7 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

23 U. Çakir €15.0M 29 yr

Galatasaray · Süper Lig

47 caps · 22 since 2024 (6.6rtg)
1 M. Günok €500k 36 yr

Beşiktaş · Süper Lig

40 caps · 13 since 2024 (6.85rtg)
12 A. Bayindir €7.0M 27 yr

Manchester United · Premier League

12 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.93rtg)

DEF Defenders · 9

22 K. Ayhan €4.7M 31 yr

Galatasaray · Süper Lig

77 caps · 6G · 17 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.7rtg) | club 1G · 6.89 rtg
3 M. Demiral 27 yr

Al-Ahli Jeddah · Pro League

61 caps · 6G · 21 since 2024 (4G/0A · 6.6rtg) | club 2G · 7.01 rtg
4 Ç. Söyüncü €6.0M 29 yr

Fenerbahçe · Süper Lig

65 caps · 2G · 6 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.9rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 7.08 rtg
2 Z. Çelik €12.0M 28 yr

AS Roma · Serie A

53 caps · 3G · 20 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.012727272727274rtg) | club 1G · 2A · 6.84 rtg
18 M. Müldür €5.0M 26 yr

Fenerbahçe · Süper Lig

44 caps · 3G · 24 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.872727272727272rtg) | club 1G · 2A · 6.73 rtg
14 A. Bardakci €6.5M 31 yr

Galatasaray · Süper Lig

34 caps · 3G · 28 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.117293233082706rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 7.14 rtg
20 F. Kadioglu Top minutes €28.0M 26 yr

Brighton · Premier League

31 caps · 2G · 17 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.5625rtg) | club 1G · 6.83 rtg
15 O. Kabak €5.0M 25 yr

1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga

30 caps · 2G · 6 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.2rtg) | club 4G · 6.92 rtg

+ 1 more in the broader pool

MID Midfielders · 10

10 H. Çalhanoglu Top scorer €22.0M 31 yr

Inter · Serie A

110 caps · 24G · 31 since 2024 (7G/4A · 7.25rtg) | club 9G · 4A · 7.51 rtg
17 I. Kahveci €4.5M 30 yr

Kasımpaşa · Süper Lig

46 caps · 6G · 16 since 2024 (4G/1A · 7.02rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 7.11 rtg
6 O. Kokçu €25.0M 25 yr

Beşiktaş · Süper Lig

49 caps · 4G · 25 since 2024 (2G/6A · 6.0779141104294485rtg) | club 8G · 8A · 7.57 rtg
11 K. Yildiz €75.0M 20 yr

Juventus · Serie A

31 caps · 5G · 28 since 2024 (4G/2A · 7.084931506849315rtg) | club 10G · 6A · 7.39 rtg
21 B. Yilmaz €20.0M 25 yr

Galatasaray · Süper Lig

33 caps · 4G · 23 since 2024 (3G/2A · 6.972067039106145rtg) | club 8G · 11A · 7.08 rtg
5 S. Özcan €3.5M 27 yr

Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga

34 caps · 1G · 18 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.263636363636364rtg)
16 I. Yüksek €12.0M 27 yr

Fenerbahçe · Süper Lig

33 caps · 1G · 21 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.287234042553192rtg) | club 1G · 2A · 6.93 rtg
19 Y. Akgün €5.0M 25 yr

Galatasaray · Süper Lig

23 caps · 3G · 16 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.2318181818181815rtg) | club 7G · 9A · 7.23 rtg

+ 2 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 4

7 K. Aktürkoglu €22.0M 27 yr

Fenerbahçe · Süper Lig

50 caps · 15G · 25 since 2024 (10G/2A · 6.046153846153846rtg) | club 8G · 7A · 7.08 rtg
8 A. Güler €45.0M 20 yr

Real Madrid · La Liga

30 caps · 7G · 26 since 2024 (6G/7A · 7.7rtg) | club 4G · 9A · 7.18 rtg
9 D. Gül €5.0M 21 yr

FC Porto · Primeira Liga

9 caps · 2G · 9 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.357142857142857rtg) | club 5G · 1A · 6.5 rtg
24 O. Aydin €10.0M 25 yr

Fenerbahçe · Süper Lig

11 caps · 11 since 2024 (0G/5A · 7.0rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 6.69 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

DEF · additional

25 S. Akaydin 31 yr

Rizespor · 18c/1g

MID · additional

13 E. Elmali 25 yr

Galatasaray · 23c
26 C. Uzun 20 yr

Eintracht Frankfurt · 7c/1g

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 3–2 @ USA

L 0–1 v PAR

L 0–2 v AUS

W 2–1 @ Venezuela

W 1–0 @ Kosovo

W 1–0 vs Romania

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(TUR win)	P(draw)
2026-06-13	A vs Australia (AUS)	36.7%	28.1%
2026-06-19	H vs Paraguay (PAR)	36.9%	29.4%
2026-06-25	A vs United States (USA)	33.4%	23.4%

What the squad is worth

Squad market value

€398.4M

Rank in the field

15 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees.

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

72.1/100

vs model strength -4.1

Top-5 leagues

37%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Süper Lig	Turkey	15	56.6%	60
Serie A	Italy	3	16.8%	88
Premier League	England	2	8.5%	100
Bundesliga	Germany	3	7.0%	90
La Liga	Spain	1	4.7%	95
Pro League	Saudi-Arabia	1	3.6%	60
Primeira Liga	Portugal	1	2.7%	70

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-07-09 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -4.1 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Turkey (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.