← Group F

Group F · TUN · outside top-16

Tunisia

Strength

72.8

± 1.6

Attack

71.5

0–100

Defense

74.9

0–100

P(champion)

0.25%

0.7% reach final

Strength trajectory

75.2 → 74.5 · -0.7

2023-03-31 range 73.9–75.5 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.25%

to lift

Polymarket

0.1%

implied · +0.2pp

Kalshi

0.1%

implied · +0.2pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-07-09.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

10.2%

R16

15.5%

Quarter

6.1%

Semi

2.2%

Final

0.7%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Stade Olympique Hammadi Agrebi

Radès · 60,000 seats (WC avg 55,865; +4,135)

Age profile

mean 25.7 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

16 A. Dahmen €800k 28 yr

—

28 caps · 13 since 2024 (6.25rtg)
1 C. Abdelmouhib 24 yr

—

5 caps · 5 since 2024 (5.561151079136691rtg)
22 S. Ben Hsan 29 yr

—

2 caps

DEF Defenders · 8

17 E. Skhiri Top scorer €6.0M 30 yr

Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga

72 caps · 4G · 18 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.407289293849659rtg)
3 M. Talbi €7.0M 27 yr

Lorient · Ligue 1

55 caps · 3G · 19 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.402620087336245rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.9 rtg
6 D. Bronn €1.3M 30 yr

Servette FC · Super League

41 caps · 2G · 9 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.2rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.67 rtg
21 A. Ben Hmida 30 yr

—

14 caps · 8 since 2024 (6.47546468401487rtg)
4 O. Rekik €600k 24 yr

—

9 caps · 1G · 6 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.936413043478261rtg)
23 M. Neffati €1.2M 21 yr

IFK Norrkoping · Allsvenskan

2 caps | club 1G · 4A · 7.02 rtg
5 A. Arous €4.0M 21 yr

Kasımpaşa · Süper Lig

2 caps · 2 since 2024 (7.299999999999999rtg) | club 1G · 6.82 rtg
24 R. Chikhaoui €1.0M 21 yr

—

MID Midfielders · 6

2 A. Abdi €2.5M 32 yr

Nice · Ligue 1

45 caps · 4G · 21 since 2024 (3G/2A · 6.124793388429753rtg) | club 3G · 6.62 rtg
7 E. Achouri €3.5M 26 yr

FC Copenhagen · Superliga

29 caps · 3G · 14 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.666037735849057rtg) | club 3G · 4A · 6.9 rtg
20 Y. Valery €2.0M 26 yr

Sheffield Wednesday · Championship

19 caps · 12 since 2024 (6.280924855491329rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.64 rtg
12 M. Ben Ouanes €1.5M 31 yr

Kasımpaşa · Süper Lig

14 caps · 8 since 2024 (6.655999999999999rtg) | club 2G · 6A · 6.78 rtg
15 H. Mahmoud €2.0M 25 yr

FC Lugano · Super League

9 caps · 9 since 2024 (6.243046357615895rtg) | club 2G · 1A · 6.74 rtg
13 R. Khedira Top minutes €2.0M 31 yr

Union Berlin · Bundesliga

7 caps · 7 since 2024 (6.4125000000000005rtg) | club 5G · 1A · 6.67 rtg

ATT Attackers · 9

25 A. Ben Slimane €2.5M 24 yr

Norwich · Championship

40 caps · 4G · 10 since 2024 (4G/0A · 6.352409638554217rtg) | club 5G · 2A · 6.75 rtg
10 H. Mejbri 22 yr

Burnley · Premier League

48 caps · 15 since 2024 (0G/4A · 6.962068965517242rtg) | club 1G · 4A · 6.72 rtg
19 F. Chaouat 29 yr

—

20 caps · 3G · 13 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.468484848484848rtg)
9 H. Mastouri €900k 28 yr

Dinamo Makhachkala · Premier League

14 caps · 3G · 12 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.261940298507463rtg) | club 2G · 6.56 rtg
11 Ismaël Gharbi €7.0M 21 yr

FC Augsburg · Bundesliga

14 caps · 1G · 14 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.469767441860466rtg)
26 S. Tounekti €300k 23 yr

Celtic · League Cup

13 caps · 12 since 2024 (6.448466257668713rtg) | club 2G · 5A · 7.042857 rtg
8 E. Saad €2.0M 26 yr

Hannover 96 · 2. Bundesliga

13 caps · 11 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.293023255813953rtg) | club 0G · 3A · 6.9 rtg
18 R. Elloumi €800k 18 yr

Vancouver Whitecaps · Major League Soccer

5 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.4361702127659575rtg) | club 2G · 7.01 rtg

+ 1 more in the broader pool

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

ATT · additional

14 K. Ayari 20 yr

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

L 1–3 v NED

L 0–4 v JPN

L 1–5 v SWE

L 0–5 @ BEL

L 0–1 @ AUT

D 0–0 @ CAN

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(TUN win)	P(draw)
2026-06-14	A vs Sweden (SWE)	26.6%	26.5%
2026-06-20	H vs Japan (JPN)	22.0%	27.8%
2026-06-25	H vs Netherlands (NED)	15.4%	22.1%

What the squad is worth

20 of 26 valued

Squad market value

€48.9M

Rank in the field

39 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees. Values marked * are floored estimates where Transfermarkt publishes none.

Where the squad plays

18 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

65.5/100

vs model strength -7.3

Top-5 leagues

35%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Bundesliga	Germany	3	16.3%	90
Süper Lig	Turkey	2	14.7%	60
Ligue 1	France	2	14.2%	80
Championship	England	2	12.2%	55
Super League	Switzerland	2	10.2%	55
Allsvenskan	Sweden	1	8.9%	45
League Cup	Scotland	1	6.0%	50
Superliga	Denmark	1	5.2%	50
Premier League	England	1	4.7%	100
Premier League	Russia	1	4.2%	55
2. Bundesliga	Germany	1	2.7%	52
Major League Soccer	USA	1	0.9%	50

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-07-09 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -7.3 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

Current injury records in the latest feed: A. Arous, M. Neffati.

Sources

5 verified outlets for Tunisia (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.