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← Group B
Group B · SUI

Switzerland

Strength
79.8
± 1.7
Attack
80.6
0–100
Defense
79.4
0–100
P(champion)
1.67%
4.4% reach final
Strength trajectory
79.4 → 79.5 · +0.1
2023-03-31 range 78.1–79.5 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
1.67%
to lift
Polymarket
2.1%
implied · -0.5pp
Kalshi
2.1%
implied · -0.5pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-07-09.

Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
51.8%
R16
57.1%
Quarter
25.9%
Semi
10.8%
Final
4.4%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data
Home venue
St. Jakob-Park
Basel · 38,512 seats (WC avg 55,865; -17,353)
Age profile
mean 27.4 / WC 27.0
U-22 22–25 26–29 30–33 34+
Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).
GK Goalkeepers · 3
  • 1 G. Kobel €40.0M 28 yr
    Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga
    26 caps · 21 since 2024 (7.557894736842106rtg)
  • 12 Y. Mvogo €3.0M 31 yr
    Lorient · Ligue 1
    13 caps · 7 since 2024 (7.32rtg)
  • 21 M. Keller €6.0M 23 yr
    BSC Young Boys · Super League
    1 cap · 1 since 2024 (6.2rtg)
DEF Defenders · 9
  • 13 R. Rodríguez €3.5M 33 yr
    Real Betis · La Liga
    136 caps · 8G · 31 since 2024 (8G/2A · 6.91452205882353rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.67 rtg
  • 5 M. Akanji €22.0M 30 yr
    Inter · Serie A
    82 caps · 4G · 30 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.094677419354839rtg)  |  club 2G · 7.15 rtg
  • 3 S. Widmer €800k 32 yr
    FSV Mainz 05 · Bundesliga
    65 caps · 5G · 26 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.366023166023166rtg)  |  club 2G · 1A · 6.81 rtg
  • 4 N. Elvedi €8.0M 29 yr
    Borussia Mönchengladbach · Bundesliga
    66 caps · 3G · 23 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.181711409395973rtg)  |  club 0G · 2A · 7.03 rtg
  • 6 D. Zakaria €25.0M 29 yr
    Monaco · Ligue 1
    61 caps · 1G · 17 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.824085365853659rtg)  |  club 2G · 1A · 6.86 rtg
  • 18 E. Cömert €2.0M 27 yr
    Valencia · La Liga
    22 caps · 9 since 2024 (6.971052631578947rtg)  |  club 2G · 1A · 6.77 rtg
  • 2 M. Muheim €5.0M 27 yr
    Hamburger SV · Bundesliga
    13 caps · 1G · 13 since 2024 (1G/3A · 6.802884615384615rtg)  |  club 0G · 4A · 6.96 rtg
  • 24 A. Amenda €6.0M 22 yr
    Eintracht Frankfurt · Bundesliga
    7 caps · 7 since 2024 (7.2rtg)
+ 1 more in the broader pool
MID Midfielders · 8
  • 10 G. Xhaka Top minutes €10.0M 33 yr
    Sunderland · Premier League
    148 caps · 19G · 31 since 2024 (5G/2A · 7.651290322580645rtg)  |  club 1G · 6A · 7.32 rtg
  • 8 R. Freuler €4.0M 33 yr
    Bologna · Serie A
    89 caps · 10G · 31 since 2024 (2G/5A · 6.8540630182421225rtg)  |  club 1G · 2A · 6.92 rtg
  • 11 D. Ndoye €40.0M 25 yr
    Nottingham Forest · Premier League
    37 caps · 10G · 30 since 2024 (10G/3A · 7.271601941747573rtg)  |  club 1G · 1A · 6.63 rtg
  • 15 D. Sow €9.0M 28 yr
    Sevilla · La Liga
    52 caps · 15 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.729583333333333rtg)  |  club 5G · 4A · 6.77 rtg
  • 20 M. Aebischer €4.5M 28 yr
    Pisa · Serie A
    45 caps · 2G · 29 since 2024 (2G/4A · 6.948880597014926rtg)  |  club 1G · 2A · 6.91 rtg
  • 22 F. Rieder €8.0M 23 yr
    FC Augsburg · Bundesliga
    32 caps · 1G · 28 since 2024 (1G/3A · 6.6790874524714825rtg)  |  club 6G · 3A · 6.88 rtg
  • 16 C. Fassnacht 32 yr
    BSC Young Boys · Super League
    23 caps · 5G · 6 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.269696969696969rtg)  |  club 18G · 7A · 7.04 rtg
  • 14 A. Jashari €32.0M 23 yr
    AC Milan · Serie A
    11 caps · 9 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.962068965517242rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.72 rtg
ATT Attackers · 6
  • 7 B. Embolo Top scorer €12.0M 28 yr
    Rennes · Ligue 1
    86 caps · 26G · 29 since 2024 (14G/3A · 7.162574257425743rtg)  |  club 9G · 3A · 6.71 rtg
  • 17 R. Vargas €9.0M 27 yr
    Sevilla · La Liga
    64 caps · 11G · 27 since 2024 (5G/7A · 7.436307692307693rtg)  |  club 3G · 6A · 6.74 rtg
  • 23 Z. Amdouni 25 yr
    Burnley · Premier League
    33 caps · 11G · 22 since 2024 (5G/0A · 6.875rtg)
  • 19 N. Okafor €18.0M 25 yr
    Leeds · Premier League
    33 caps · 2G · 14 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.753333333333333rtg)  |  club 8G · 1A · 6.93 rtg
  • 9 J. Manzambi €30.0M 20 yr
    SC Freiburg · Bundesliga
    17 caps · 6G · 17 since 2024 (6G/3A · 7.557911392405064rtg)  |  club 5G · 4A · 7.21 rtg
  • 26 C. Itten 29 yr
    Fortuna Düsseldorf · 2. Bundesliga
    19 caps · 5G · 7 since 2024 (5G/0A · 6.752222222222223rtg)  |  club 15G · 3A · 7.01 rtg
Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾
DEF · additional
  • 25 L. Jaquez 22 yr
    VfB Stuttgart · 6c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6
D 0–0 vs COL
W 2–0 vs ALG
W 2–1 @ CAN
W 4–1 v BIH
D 1–1 v QAT
D 1–1 vs AUS

Group fixtures

3 matches
Date Match P(SUI win) P(draw) Shape

What the squad is worth

Squad market value
€325.3M
Rank in the field
19 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees.

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes
Weighted strength
84.5/100
vs model strength +4.7
Top-5 leagues
84%
Unrated leagues
0%
League Country Players Minutes share Strength
Bundesliga Germany 8 32.4% 90
Serie A Italy 4 16.2% 88
La Liga Spain 4 12.5% 95
Ligue 1 France 3 12.5% 80
Super League Switzerland 2 10.8% 55
Premier League England 4 10.7% 100
2. Bundesliga Germany 1 4.9% 52

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-07-09 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs +4.7 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

Current injury records in the latest feed: M. Muheim, L. Jaquez, L. Jaquez, J. Manzambi, M. Aebischer.

Sources

5 verified outlets for Switzerland (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.