Agent Lab — a live forecast exhibit · Applied AI
← Group H
Group H · KSA · outside top-16

Saudi Arabia

Strength
69.5
± 1.5
Attack
66.5
0–100
Defense
73.4
0–100
P(champion)
0.01%
0.1% reach final
Strength trajectory
70.9 → 70.0 · -0.9
2023-03-31 range 69.6–70.9 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
0.01%
to lift
Polymarket
0.1%
implied · -0.0pp
Kalshi
0.1%
implied · -0.0pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-07-09.

Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
2.1%
R16
9.7%
Quarter
2.7%
Semi
0.5%
Final
0.1%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data
Home venue
King Fahd Sports City Stadium
Riyadh · 68,752 seats (WC avg 55,865; +12,887)
Age profile
mean 27.6 / WC 27.0
U-22 22–25 26–29 30–33 34+
Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).
GK Goalkeepers · 3
  • 21 Mohammed Al Owais €275k 34 yr
    —
    86 caps · 38 since 2024 (7.45rtg)
  • 1 Nawaf Al Aqidi €650k 25 yr
    Al-Nassr · Pro League
    19 caps · 15 since 2024 (6.96rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.86 rtg
  • 22 Ahmed Al Kassar €175k 34 yr
    Al-Qadisiyah FC · Pro League
    15 caps · 11 since 2024 (6.78rtg)
DEF Defenders · 9
  • 12 Saud Abdulhamid €3.0M 26 yr
    Lens · Ligue 1
    53 caps · 1G · 23 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.633828996282528rtg)  |  club 2G · 4A · 6.99 rtg
  • 5 Hassan Tambakti €250k* 26 yr
    Al-Hilal Saudi FC · Pro League
    52 caps · 27 since 2024 (5.94950495049505rtg)  |  club 1G · 7.09 rtg
  • 4 Abdulelah Al Amri €1.4M 28 yr
    Al-Nassr · Pro League
    37 caps · 2G · 12 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.005263157894737rtg)  |  club 2G · 2A · 7.08 rtg
  • 3 Ali Lajami 29 yr
    Al-Hilal Saudi FC · King's Cup
    24 caps · 1G · 17 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.7625rtg)
  • 14 Hassan Kadesh €250k* 33 yr
    Al-Ittihad FC · King's Cup
    21 caps · 2G · 16 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.1rtg)  |  club 5G · 7.086206 rtg
  • 24 Moteb Al Harbi 25 yr
    Al-Hilal Saudi FC · King's Cup
    20 caps · 16 since 2024 (0G/2A · 6.145756457564576rtg)  |  club 1G · 3A · 6.957142 rtg
  • 13 Nawaf Boushal €1.4M 26 yr
    Al-Nassr · Pro League
    19 caps · 18 since 2024 (6.496132596685083rtg)  |  club 0G · 6A · 6.96 rtg
  • 2 Ali Majrashi €1.4M 26 yr
    Al-Ahli Jeddah · Pro League
    14 caps · 11 since 2024 (0G/1A · 7.17rtg)  |  club 1G · 3A · 6.93 rtg
+ 1 more in the broader pool
MID Midfielders · 8
  • 10 Salem Al Dawsari Top scorer €2.0M 34 yr
    Al-Hilal Saudi FC · Pro League
    102 caps · 23G · 22 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.571875rtg)  |  club 8G · 8A · 7.3 rtg
  • 6 Nasser Al Dawsari €900k 27 yr
    Al-Hilal Saudi FC · Pro League
    58 caps · 2G · 39 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.654980079681275rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.87 rtg
  • 15 Abdullah Al Khaibari €750k 29 yr
    Al-Nassr · King's Cup
    44 caps · 23 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.62rtg)
  • 8 Ayman Yahya €1.2M 24 yr
    Al-Nassr · Pro League
    22 caps · 15 since 2024 (6.9rtg)  |  club 2G · 2A · 6.79 rtg
  • 20 Sultan Mandash €350k 31 yr
    Al Taawon · Pro League
    7 caps · 2G · 5 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.438297872340426rtg)  |  club 2G · 3A · 6.8 rtg
  • 16 Ziyad Al Johani €800k 24 yr
    Al-Ahli Jeddah · Pro League
    10 caps · 10 since 2024 (6.62rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.68 rtg
  • 26 Mohammed Abu Al Shamat €1.8M 23 yr
    Al-Qadisiyah FC · Pro League
    7 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.490862944162437rtg)  |  club 3G · 8A · 7.3 rtg
  • 27 Ala Al Haji 29 yr
    —
ATT Attackers · 6
  • 9 Feras Al Brikan €250k* 25 yr
    Al-Ahli Jeddah · Pro League
    68 caps · 13G · 29 since 2024 (7G/0A · 6.384664536741214rtg)  |  club 5G · 1A · 6.71 rtg
  • 23 Mohamed Kanno €800k 31 yr
    Al-Hilal Saudi FC · Pro League
    80 caps · 4G · 31 since 2024 (1G/2A · 7.020805369127516rtg)  |  club 5G · 3A · 7.17 rtg
  • 11 Saleh Al Shehri €650k 32 yr
    Al-Ittihad FC · King's Cup
    47 caps · 14G · 19 since 2024 (5G/0A · 6.73rtg)  |  club 3G · 1A · 6.631578 rtg
  • 19 Abdullah Al Hamdan €350k 26 yr
    Al-Hilal Saudi FC · King's Cup
    54 caps · 10G · 28 since 2024 (5G/2A · 6.252941176470588rtg)  |  club 1G · 6.653333 rtg
  • 7 Musab Al Juwayr Top minutes €6.0M 22 yr
    Al-Qadisiyah FC · Pro League
    37 caps · 4G · 34 since 2024 (3G/3A · 6.662831858407079rtg)  |  club 6G · 11A · 7.39 rtg
  • 17 Khalid Al Ghannam €2.5M 25 yr
    Al-Ettifaq · Pro League
    7 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.5rtg)  |  club 13G · 6A · 7.27 rtg
Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾
DEF · additional
  • 25 J. Thakri 24 yr

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6
D 0–0 v CPV
L 0–4 v ESP
D 1–1 v URU
D 0–0 vs SEN
W 3–0 @ Puerto Rico
L 1–2 v ECU

Group fixtures

3 matches
Date Match P(KSA win) P(draw) Shape
2026-06-15 H vs Uruguay (URU) 13.2% 26.9%
2026-06-21 A vs Spain (ESP) 6.2% 17.0%
2026-06-26 A vs Cape Verde (CPV) 31.9% 34.4%

What the squad is worth

Squad market value
€26.9M
Rank in the field
43 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees.

Where the squad plays

23 of 26 with on-pitch minutes
Weighted strength
53.6/100
vs model strength -15.9
Top-5 leagues
4%
Unrated leagues
24%
League Country Players Minutes share Strength
Pro League Saudi-Arabia 16 72.8% 60
King's Cup (unrated) 6 23.6% 30
Ligue 1 France 1 3.6% 80

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-07-09 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -15.9 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Saudi Arabia (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.