← Group I

Group I · FRA

France

Strength

85.0

± 1.6

Attack

85.0

0–100

Defense

84.8

0–100

P(champion)

6.49%

12.8% reach final

Strength trajectory

84.5 → 84.4 · -0.1

2023-03-31 range 84.3–84.7 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

6.49%

to lift

Polymarket

32.1%

implied · -25.6pp

Kalshi

33.1%

implied · -26.6pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-07-09.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

59.0%

R16

63.4%

Quarter

38.5%

Semi

23.4%

Final

12.8%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Groupama Stadium

Saint-Denis · 80,698 seats (WC avg 55,865; +24,833)

Age profile

mean 26.0 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

16 M. Maignan €38.0M 30 yr

AC Milan · Serie A

43 caps · 30 since 2024 (7.033333333333333rtg)
1 B. Samba €10.0M 31 yr

Rennes · Ligue 1

4 caps · 2 since 2024 (7.25rtg)
23 R. Risser €10.0M 21 yr

Lens · Ligue 1

| club 0G · 1A · 7.08 rtg

DEF Defenders · 9

3 L. Digne €8.0M 32 yr

Aston Villa · Premier League

54 caps · 14 since 2024 (0G/4A · 6.977227722772277rtg) | club 0G · 6A · 6.78 rtg
5 J. Koundé 27 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

53 caps · 28 since 2024 (6.869857433808554rtg) | club 1G · 3A · 6.92 rtg
19 T. Hernández €60.0M 28 yr

Al-Hilal Saudi FC · Pro League

45 caps · 2G · 22 since 2024 (2G/2A · 6.520253164556962rtg) | club 5G · 1A · 7.08 rtg
4 D. Upamecano €70.0M 27 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

42 caps · 2G · 25 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.451975051975052rtg) | club 1G · 1A · 7.22 rtg
21 L. Hernández €20.0M 29 yr

Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1

38 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.97rtg) | club 0G · 3A · 7.07 rtg
17 W. Saliba 24 yr

Arsenal · Premier League

35 caps · 23 since 2024 (7.0rtg) | club 1G · 7.04 rtg
15 I. Konaté Top minutes €45.0M 26 yr

Liverpool · Premier League

28 caps · 15 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.351851851851852rtg) | club 1G · 7.07 rtg
2 M. Gusto €35.0M 22 yr

Chelsea · Premier League

12 caps · 11 since 2024 (0G/2A · 6.591379310344828rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 6.66 rtg

+ 1 more in the broader pool

MID Midfielders · 12

7 O. Dembélé €100.0M 28 yr

Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1

64 caps · 11G · 20 since 2024 (6G/3A · 7.736827956989249rtg) | club 10G · 7A · 7.41 rtg
14 A. Rabiot €20.0M 30 yr

AC Milan · Serie A

65 caps · 7G · 19 since 2024 (3G/1A · 7.089695550351289rtg) | club 6G · 4A · 7.24 rtg
13 N. Kanté €12.0M 34 yr

Al-Ittihad FC · Pro League

69 caps · 2G · 13 since 2024 (2G/2A · 7.35rtg) | club 2G · 1A · 7.06 rtg
8 A. Tchouaméni €100.0M 25 yr

Real Madrid · La Liga

48 caps · 3G · 19 since 2024 (3G/3A · 7.414285714285715rtg) | club 1G · 7.23 rtg
9 M. Thuram €60.0M 28 yr

Inter · Serie A

36 caps · 4G · 19 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.6rtg) | club 13G · 6A · 7.04 rtg
12 B. Barcola 23 yr

Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1

23 caps · 5G · 23 since 2024 (5G/2A · 7.181040892193309rtg) | club 11G · 1A · 7.21 rtg
11 M. Olise €130.0M 24 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

20 caps · 4G · 20 since 2024 (4G/7A · 7.495485327313769rtg) | club 15G · 19A · 7.89 rtg
20 D. Doué €90.0M 20 yr

Paris Saint Germain · Ligue 1

10 caps · 3G · 10 since 2024 (3G/0A · 7.063786008230453rtg) | club 7G · 4A · 7.14 rtg

+ 4 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 2

10 Kylian Mbappé Top scorer €180.0M 27 yr

Real Madrid · La Liga

96 caps · 60G · 26 since 2024 (17G/8A · 8.23395061728395rtg) | club 25G · 5A · 7.53 rtg
22 J. Mateta 28 yr

Crystal Palace · Premier League

6 caps · 2G · 6 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.314285714285714rtg) | club 12G · 6.73 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

DEF · additional

26 M. Lacroix 25 yr

Crystal Palace · 4c

MID · additional

6 M. Koné 24 yr

AS Roma · 15c
24 R. Cherki 22 yr

Manchester City · 10c/2g
18 W. Zaïre-Emery 19 yr

Paris Saint Germain · 10c/1g
25 M. Akliouche 23 yr

Monaco · 9c/1g

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 1–0 @ PAR

W 3–0 vs SWE

W 4–1 v NOR

W 3–0 v IRQ

W 3–1 v SEN

W 3–1 vs Northern Ireland

Group fixtures

4 matches

Date	Match	P(FRA win)	P(draw)
2026-06-16	H vs Senegal (SEN)	53.9%	26.3%
2026-06-22	H vs Iraq (IRQ)	76.3%	16.3%
2026-06-26	A vs Norway (NOR)	54.8%	23.5%
2026-06-30	H vs Sweden (SWE)	67.6%	17.9%

What the squad is worth

Squad market value

€1218.0M

Rank in the field

2 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees.

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

88.2/100

vs model strength +3.2

Top-5 leagues

93%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Premier League	England	7	28.4%	100
Ligue 1	France	8	27.8%	80
Serie A	Italy	4	17.1%	88
La Liga	Spain	3	12.5%	95
Pro League	Saudi-Arabia	2	7.2%	60
Bundesliga	Germany	2	6.9%	90

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-07-09 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs +3.2 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for France (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.