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Group L · ENG

England

Strength

85.3

± 1.6

Attack

83.9

0–100

Defense

86.4

0–100

P(champion)

9.26%

15.9% reach final

Strength trajectory

85.1 → 85.5 · +0.4

2023-03-31 range 84.6–85.6 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

9.26%

to lift

Polymarket

15.8%

implied · -6.6pp

Kalshi

15.5%

implied · -6.3pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-07-09.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

64.0%

R16

67.0%

Quarter

45.1%

Semi

26.8%

Final

15.9%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Wembley Stadium

London · 90,000 seats (WC avg 55,865; +34,135)

Age profile

mean 26.3 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 J. Pickford €15.0M 31 yr

Everton · Premier League

83 caps · 32 since 2024 (6.786220472440945rtg)
13 D. Henderson €28.0M 28 yr

Crystal Palace · Premier League

4 caps · 3 since 2024 (7.2rtg)
23 J. Trafford €18.0M 23 yr

Manchester City · League Cup

2 caps · 2 since 2024 (6.6rtg)

DEF Defenders · 9

5 J. Stones €18.0M 31 yr

Manchester City · Premier League

84 caps · 3G · 22 since 2024 (3G/1A · 6.574719101123595rtg)
6 M. Guéhi €55.0M 25 yr

Crystal Palace · Premier League

34 caps · 1G · 25 since 2024 (1G/5A · 7.263785046728972rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 7.22 rtg
24 R. James 26 yr

Chelsea · Premier League

28 caps · 2G · 11 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.6rtg) | club 2G · 4A · 7.19 rtg
2 E. Konsa €35.0M 28 yr

Aston Villa · Premier League

26 caps · 1G · 26 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.828937007874016rtg)
25 D. Spence €8.0M 25 yr

Tottenham · Premier League

10 caps · 10 since 2024 (0G/1A · 7.11578947368421rtg)
3 N. Oreilly €40.0M 20 yr

Manchester City · Premier League

9 caps · 9 since 2024 (6.3430992736077485rtg) | club 5G · 3A · 6.88 rtg
15 D. Burn €5.0M 33 yr

Newcastle · Premier League

9 caps · 9 since 2024 (7.238356164383561rtg) | club 1G · 2A · 6.59 rtg
26 J. Quansah 22 yr

Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga

4 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.522222222222221rtg) | club 4G · 6.9 rtg

+ 1 more in the broader pool

MID Midfielders · 12

11 M. Rashford €40.0M 28 yr

Barcelona · La Liga

74 caps · 19G · 18 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.831578947368421rtg) | club 8G · 7A · 6.82 rtg
14 J. Henderson €2.0M 35 yr

Brentford · Premier League

89 caps · 3G · 12 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.978947368421053rtg) | club 1G · 3A · 6.8 rtg
7 B. Saka 24 yr

Arsenal · Premier League

57 caps · 14G · 21 since 2024 (3G/4A · 6.9624999999999995rtg) | club 7G · 5A · 7.24 rtg
4 D. Rice 26 yr

Arsenal · Premier League

72 caps · 6G · 30 since 2024 (3G/9A · 7.0115819209039545rtg) | club 4G · 5A · 7.46 rtg
10 J. Bellingham €160.0M 22 yr

Real Madrid · La Liga

57 caps · 10G · 27 since 2024 (8G/6A · 7.771212121212121rtg) | club 6G · 4A · 7.28 rtg
19 O. Watkins 30 yr

Aston Villa · Premier League

22 caps · 6G · 13 since 2024 (3G/1A · 6.852631578947369rtg) | club 16G · 3A · 6.87 rtg
18 A. Gordon €60.0M 24 yr

Newcastle · Premier League

23 caps · 3G · 23 since 2024 (3G/2A · 6.8799363057324845rtg) | club 6G · 2A · 7.08 rtg
21 E. Eze 27 yr

Arsenal · Premier League

20 caps · 4G · 18 since 2024 (4G/0A · 6.583636363636364rtg) | club 7G · 2A · 6.96 rtg
8 E. Anderson Top minutes €60.0M 23 yr

Nottingham Forest · Premier League

13 caps · 13 since 2024 (0G/1A · 7.383187772925764rtg) | club 4G · 4A · 7.35 rtg

+ 3 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 2

9 H. Kane Top scorer 32 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

113 caps · 83G · 31 since 2024 (25G/1A · 7.576073619631901rtg) | club 36G · 5A · 7.87 rtg
22 I. Toney 29 yr

Al-Ahli Jeddah · Pro League

8 caps · 1G · 7 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.5rtg) | club 31G · 7A · 7.37 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

DEF · additional

12 T. Chalobah 26 yr

MID · additional

20 N. Madueke 23 yr

Arsenal · 14c/1g
8 E. Anderson 23 yr

Nottingham Forest · 13c
16 K. Mainoo 20 yr

Manchester United · 13c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

W 3–2 @ MEX

W 2–1 vs COD

W 2–0 v PAN

D 0–0 v GHA

W 4–2 v CRO

W 3–0 vs Costa Rica

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(ENG win)	P(draw)
2026-06-17	H vs Croatia (CRO)	49.3%	27.8%
2026-06-23	H vs Ghana (GHA)	66.1%	22.8%
2026-06-27	A vs Panama (PAN)	73.6%	17.9%

What the squad is worth

Squad market value

€1218.0M

Rank in the field

1 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees.

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

97.0/100

vs model strength +11.7

Top-5 leagues

94%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Premier League	England	20	79.8%	100
Bundesliga	Germany	2	8.2%	90
La Liga	Spain	2	6.4%	95
Pro League	Saudi-Arabia	1	4.7%	60
League Cup	England	1	0.9%	100

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-07-09 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs +11.7 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

Current injury records in the latest feed: R. James, R. James, J. Quansah.

Sources

4 verified outlets for England (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.