← Group A

Group A · CZE · outside top-16

Czech Republic

Strength

74.5

± 1.5

Attack

75.2

0–100

Defense

74.6

0–100

P(champion)

0.3%

1.1% reach final

Strength trajectory

76.5 → 75.0 · -1.5

2023-03-31 range 75.0–76.7 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.3%

to lift

Polymarket

0.1%

implied · +0.2pp

Kalshi

0.5%

implied · -0.2pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-07-09.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

20.9%

R16

32.3%

Quarter

11.8%

Semi

3.5%

Final

1.1%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Fortuna Arena

Prague · 19,370 seats (WC avg 55,865; -36,495)

Age profile

mean 26.6 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 M. Kovár €7.0M 25 yr

PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie

24 caps · 24 since 2024 (6.633333333333334rtg)
16 J. Stanek 29 yr

Slavia Praha · Czech Liga

14 caps · 6 since 2024 (7.35rtg)
23 L. Hornícek €10.0M 23 yr

SC Braga · Primeira Liga

DEF Defenders · 6

3 T. Holes €1.0M 32 yr

Slavia Praha · Czech Liga

47 caps · 3G · 16 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.416883116883117rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 7.41 rtg
7 L. Krejcí €200k 26 yr

Wolves · Premier League

37 caps · 6G · 30 since 2024 (4G/1A · 6.9rtg) | club 2G · 1A · 6.71 rtg
2 D. Zima 25 yr

Slavia Praha · Czech Liga

27 caps · 1G · 8 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.3rtg) | club 1G · 3A · 6.94 rtg
14 D. Jurásek €4.5M 25 yr

Slavia Praha · Czech Liga

17 caps · 1G · 12 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.95rtg) | club 1G · 6A · 7.38 rtg
4 R. Hranác €7.0M 25 yr

1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga

15 caps · 1G · 15 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.266666666666667rtg) | club 1G · 6.74 rtg
6 S. Chaloupek €10.0M 22 yr

Slavia Praha · Czech Liga

4 caps · 4 since 2024 (5.9rtg) | club 9G · 2A · 7.21 rtg

MID Midfielders · 10

22 T. Soucek €12.0M 30 yr

West Ham · Premier League

86 caps · 15G · 28 since 2024 (4G/0A · 6.564705882352941rtg) | club 5G · 6.77 rtg
8 V. Darida €400k 35 yr

Hradec Králové · Czech Liga

73 caps · 7G · 3 since 2024 (7G/0A · 6.9rtg) | club 10G · 3A · 7.44 rtg
5 V. Coufal Top minutes €2.7M 33 yr

1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga

66 caps · 3G · 29 since 2024 (2G/4A · 6.733333333333333rtg) | club 1G · 8A · 7.16 rtg
18 M. Sadílek €7.5M 26 yr

Slavia Praha · Czech Liga

37 caps · 2G · 16 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.0661202185792344rtg) | club 1G · 4A · 7.02 rtg
20 J. Zelený €600k 33 yr

Sparta Praha · Czech Liga

25 caps · 16 since 2024 (0G/4A · 6.732rtg) | club 1G · 3A · 6.9 rtg
12 L. Cerv €6.0M 24 yr

Plzen · Czech Liga

19 caps · 2G · 19 since 2024 (2G/3A · 6.841818181818183rtg) | club 1G · 3A · 7.01 rtg
21 D. Doudera 27 yr

Slavia Praha · Czech Liga

17 caps · 2G · 11 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.7rtg) | club 1G · 4A · 7.03 rtg
26 D. Visinský €3.0M 22 yr

Plzen · Czech Liga

1 cap · 1 since 2024 (6.6rtg) | club 8G · 1A · 7.05 rtg

+ 2 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 7

10 P. Schick Top scorer €25.0M 29 yr

Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga

51 caps · 24G · 22 since 2024 (10G/0A · 6.3711111111111105rtg) | club 16G · 3A · 6.95 rtg
9 A. Hlozek 23 yr

1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga

56 caps · 7G · 23 since 2024 (5G/0A · 6.617834394904459rtg)
17 L. Provod €8.0M 29 yr

Slavia Praha · Czech Liga

42 caps · 3G · 26 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.730578512396694rtg) | club 7G · 10A · 7.44 rtg
15 P. Sulc €20.0M 25 yr

Lyon · Ligue 1

25 caps · 6G · 25 since 2024 (6G/2A · 6.607936507936508rtg) | club 11G · 3A · 6.91 rtg
11 J. Kuchta 28 yr

Sparta Praha · Czech Liga

31 caps · 3G · 11 since 2024 (3G/1A · 6.59rtg) | club 12G · 6A · 6.91 rtg
19 T. Chorý €1.8M 30 yr

Slavia Praha · Czech Liga

24 caps · 6G · 23 since 2024 (5G/3A · 6.3rtg) | club 17G · 4A · 7.28 rtg
13 M. Chytil €4.0M 26 yr

Slavia Praha · Czech Liga

24 caps · 6G · 13 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.5rtg) | club 13G · 1A · 6.88 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

24 A. Sojka 22 yr

Hradec Králové
25 H. Sochurek 17 yr

Sparta Praha

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

L 0–3 @ MEX

D 1–1 v RSA

L 1–2 v KOR

W 3–1 vs Guatemala

W 2–1 vs Kosovo

W 2–2 vs Denmark

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(CZE win)	P(draw)
2026-06-11	A vs South Korea (KOR)	35.2%	28.9%
2026-06-18	H vs South Africa (RSA)	42.9%	29.5%
2026-06-24	A vs Mexico (MEX)	22.7%	24.8%

What the squad is worth

Squad market value

€153.4M

Rank in the field

29 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees.

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

62.7/100

vs model strength -11.8

Top-5 leagues

27%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Czech Liga	Czech-Republic	17	61.3%	48
Bundesliga	Germany	4	14.7%	90
Premier League	England	2	9.2%	100
Primeira Liga	Portugal	1	6.0%	70
Eredivisie	Netherlands	1	5.6%	72
Ligue 1	France	1	3.2%	80

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-07-09 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -11.8 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

Current injury records in the latest feed: D. Jurásek.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Czech Republic (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.