← Group L

Group L · CRO

Croatia

Strength

79.8

± 1.6

Attack

80.3

0–100

Defense

79.7

0–100

P(champion)

2.21%

5.1% reach final

Strength trajectory

80.3 → 80.2 · -0.1

2023-03-31 range 79.8–80.7 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

2.21%

to lift

Polymarket

0.3%

implied · +1.9pp

Kalshi

0.3%

implied · +1.9pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-07-09.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

29.0%

R16

46.6%

Quarter

23.5%

Semi

11.4%

Final

5.1%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Stadion Maksimir

Zagreb · 25,912 seats (WC avg 55,865; -29,953)

Age profile

mean 27.3 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 D. Livakovic €11.0M 31 yr

Dinamo Zagreb · HNL

76 caps · 27 since 2024 (6.871837708830549rtg)
23 D. Kotarski €6.0M 25 yr

FC Copenhagen · Superliga

4 caps · 4 since 2024 (6.64rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.86 rtg
12 I. Pandur €2.0M 25 yr

Hull City · Championship

DEF Defenders · 7

14 I. Perisic Top scorer €1.3M 36 yr

PSV Eindhoven · Eredivisie

149 caps · 36G · 29 since 2024 (6G/6A · 7.0rtg) | club 7G · 12A · 7.23 rtg
4 J. Gvardiol €70.0M 23 yr

Manchester City · Premier League

56 caps · 4G · 25 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.2710407239818995rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 7.01 rtg
5 D. Caleta-Car €7.0M 29 yr

Real Sociedad · La Liga

38 caps · 1G · 15 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.09rtg) | club 1G · 6.81 rtg
6 J. Sutalo €17.0M 25 yr

Ajax · Eredivisie

38 caps · 24 since 2024 (6.696751740139211rtg)
3 M. Pongracic €7.5M 28 yr

Fiorentina · Serie A

25 caps · 18 since 2024 (6.559800664451827rtg)
25 M. Erlic €4.0M 27 yr

FC Midtjylland · Superliga

14 caps · 1G · 5 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.96rtg) | club 2G · 6.82 rtg
22 L. Vuskovic €40.0M 18 yr

Hamburger SV · Bundesliga

7 caps · 1G · 7 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.3730769230769235rtg) | club 6G · 7.26 rtg

MID Midfielders · 11

10 L. Modric €4.0M 40 yr

AC Milan · Serie A

164 caps · 22G · 30 since 2024 (4G/3A · 7.12917771883289rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 7.55 rtg
9 A. Kramaric €3.0M 34 yr

1899 Hoffenheim · Bundesliga

115 caps · 34G · 30 since 2024 (9G/1A · 6.587640449438202rtg) | club 14G · 6A · 7.07 rtg
8 M. Kovacic €15.0M 31 yr

Manchester City · Premier League

112 caps · 4G · 20 since 2024 (4G/1A · 6.903343465045594rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.8 rtg
15 Mario Pasalic €7.0M 30 yr

Atalanta · Serie A

86 caps · 11G · 29 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.744444444444445rtg) | club 3G · 4A · 6.88 rtg
13 N. Vlasic €10.0M 28 yr

Torino · Serie A

60 caps · 8G · 13 since 2024 (4G/0A · 6.665384615384616rtg) | club 8G · 3A · 6.92 rtg
2 J. Stanisic €32.0M 25 yr

Bayern München · Bundesliga

36 caps · 19 since 2024 (0G/3A · 6.622966507177034rtg) | club 2G · 3A · 6.92 rtg
18 K. Jakic €6.0M 28 yr

FC Augsburg · Bundesliga

20 caps · 2G · 12 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.36rtg) | club 2G · 1A · 6.77 rtg
21 L. Sucic €10.0M 23 yr

Real Sociedad · La Liga

22 caps · 1G · 17 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.747999999999999rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 6.77 rtg

+ 3 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 5

11 A. Budimir Top minutes €3.0M 34 yr

Osasuna · La Liga

43 caps · 7G · 22 since 2024 (5G/2A · 6.553723404255319rtg) | club 17G · 6.84 rtg
16 M. Baturina €30.0M 22 yr

Como · Serie A

23 caps · 2G · 21 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.119746835443038rtg) | club 6G · 3A · 7.14 rtg
17 P. Sucic €30.0M 22 yr

Inter · Serie A

21 caps · 2G · 21 since 2024 (2G/2A · 7.027019498607242rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 6.88 rtg
26 P. Musa €8.0M 27 yr

FC Dallas · Major League Soccer

14 caps · 2G · 8 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.875147928994084rtg) | club 19G · 6A · 7.38 rtg
20 I. Matanovic €7.0M 22 yr

SC Freiburg · Bundesliga

11 caps · 1G · 11 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.354838709677419rtg) | club 11G · 2A · 6.81 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

24 Marco Pasalic 25 yr

Orlando City SC · 18c/1g
7 N. Moro 27 yr

Bologna · 10c
19 T. Fruk 24 yr

HNK Rijeka · 7c/1g

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

L 1–2 @ POR

W 2–1 v GHA

W 1–0 v PAN

L 2–4 v ENG

W 2–1 vs Slovenia

L 0–2 vs BEL

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(CRO win)	P(draw)
2026-06-17	A vs England (ENG)	22.9%	27.8%
2026-06-23	A vs Panama (PAN)	63.0%	22.1%
2026-06-27	H vs Ghana (GHA)	54.6%	26.3%

What the squad is worth

Squad market value

€346.6M

Rank in the field

16 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees.

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

77.1/100

vs model strength -2.7

Top-5 leagues

61%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Serie A	Italy	7	29.3%	88
Bundesliga	Germany	5	17.9%	90
La Liga	Spain	3	11.3%	95
Major League Soccer	USA	2	9.5%	50
Championship	England	1	7.9%	55
Superliga	Denmark	2	7.8%	50
Eredivisie	Netherlands	2	7.4%	72
HNL	Croatia	2	6.1%	55
Premier League	England	2	2.8%	100

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-07-09 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -2.7 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Croatia (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.