← Group K

Group K · COD · outside top-16

DR Congo

Strength

72.8

± 1.8

Attack

70.1

0–100

Defense

76.1

0–100

P(champion)

0.04%

0.2% reach final

Strength trajectory

68.7 → 71.7 · +3.0

2023-03-31 range 68.7–71.7 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.04%

to lift

Kalshi

0.5%

implied · -0.4pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-07-09.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

4.3%

R16

10.7%

Quarter

3.2%

Semi

0.9%

Final

0.2%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Stade des Martyrs

Kinshasa · 80,000 seats (WC avg 55,865; +24,135)

Age profile

mean 28.2 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 L. Mpasi €700k 31 yr

Le Havre · Ligue 1

23 caps · 10 since 2024 (6.775rtg)
21 M. Epolo €800k 20 yr

Standard Liege · Jupiler Pro League
16 T. Fayulu €800k 26 yr

FC Sion · Super League

DEF Defenders · 8

22 C. Mbemba €2.5M 31 yr

Lille · Ligue 1

70 caps · 4G · 14 since 2024 (4G/1A · 6.7rtg)
26 A. Masuaku €2.5M 32 yr

Lens · Ligue 1

41 caps · 4G · 15 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.821383647798743rtg)
12 J. Kayembe €2.5M 31 yr

Genk · Jupiler Pro League

27 caps · 14 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.796551724137931rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 7.0 rtg
24 G. Kalulu €3.5M 28 yr

Aris · 1. Division

19 caps · 6 since 2024 (6.9rtg)
5 D. Batubinsika €700k 29 yr

Larisa · Super League 1

12 caps · 1G · 1 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.9rtg)
4 A. Tuanzebe €5.0M 28 yr

Burnley · Premier League

11 caps · 1G · 10 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.625rtg) | club 1G · 6.53 rtg
2 A. Wan-Bissaka €22.0M 28 yr

West Ham · Premier League

8 caps · 8 since 2024 (6.950704225352113rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 6.64 rtg
3 S. Kapuadi €2.5M 27 yr

Legia Warszawa · Ekstraklasa

2 caps · 2 since 2024 (6.3rtg)

MID Midfielders · 8

8 S. Moutoussamy €1.2M 29 yr

Atromitos · Super League 1

49 caps · 16 since 2024 (6.681681681681682rtg) | club 3G · 6.94 rtg
10 T. Bongonda €5.0M 30 yr

Spartak Moscow · Premier League

33 caps · 6G · 15 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.4312499999999995rtg)
25 E. Kayembe €4.0M 27 yr

Watford · Championship

30 caps · 1G · 12 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.428749999999999rtg) | club 4G · 1A · 6.83 rtg
18 C. Pickel €3.2M 28 yr

Espanyol · La Liga

26 caps · 1G · 10 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.594117647058823rtg) | club 1G · 6.53 rtg
14 N. Sadiki Top minutes €5.0M 21 yr

Sunderland · Premier League

16 caps · 15 since 2024 (6.9rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.76 rtg
15 A. Tshibola 30 yr

Kilmarnock · Premiership

14 caps · 1G
7 N. Mbuku €2.0M 23 yr

Montpellier · Ligue 2

11 caps · 1G · 11 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.738888888888889rtg) | club 4G · 5A · 6.95 rtg
6 N. Mukau €12.0M 21 yr

Lille · Ligue 1

11 caps · 11 since 2024 (6.428571428571429rtg) | club 1G · 6.61 rtg

ATT Attackers · 7

17 C. Bakambu Top scorer €1.4M 34 yr

Real Betis · La Liga

69 caps · 20G · 10 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.455440414507772rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 6.65 rtg
13 M. Elia €1.5M 28 yr

Alanyaspor · Süper Lig

55 caps · 11G · 15 since 2024 (2G/3A · 6.586363636363635rtg) | club 3G · 6.64 rtg
20 Y. Wissa €28.0M 29 yr

Newcastle · Premier League

30 caps · 8G · 7 since 2024 (3G/0A · 7.025rtg) | club 1G · 6.47 rtg
19 F. Mayele 31 yr

Pyramids FC · Premier League

32 caps · 6G · 12 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.780851063829788rtg) | club 5G · 2A · 6.62 rtg
11 G. Kakuta €1.8M 34 yr

Sakaryaspor · 1. Lig

23 caps · 5G · 3 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.34rtg) | club 8G · 3A · 7.1 rtg
23 S. Banza €11.0M 29 yr

Al-Jazira · Pro League

20 caps · 2G · 9 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.3rtg) | club 3G · 1A · 6.91 rtg
9 B. Cipenga 27 yr

Castellón · Segunda División

5 caps · 1G · 5 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.659459459459459rtg) | club 6G · 9A · 7.15 rtg

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

L 1–2 @ ENG

W 3–1 v UZB

L 0–1 v COL

D 1–1 v POR

L 1–2 vs Chile

D 0–0 vs Denmark

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(COD win)	P(draw)
2026-06-17	A vs Portugal (POR)	12.9%	23.4%
2026-06-23	A vs Colombia (COL)	14.9%	27.5%
2026-06-27	H vs Uzbekistan (UZB)	39.8%	32.1%

What the squad is worth

24 of 26 valued

Squad market value

€120.5M

Rank in the field

33 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees. Values marked * are floored estimates where Transfermarkt publishes none.

Where the squad plays

25 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

66.3/100

vs model strength -6.5

Top-5 leagues

33%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
Premier League	England	4	20.0%	100
Jupiler Pro League	Belgium	2	14.0%	65
Super League 1	Greece	2	11.1%	55
Ligue 1	France	4	9.1%	80
Championship	England	1	7.4%	55
Segunda División	Spain	1	6.7%	50
Ligue 2	France	1	6.5%	48
1. Lig	Turkey	1	4.8%	38
Premier League	Egypt	1	4.5%	40
Ekstraklasa	Poland	1	4.2%	48
La Liga	Spain	2	3.9%	95
Premiership	Scotland	1	2.6%	50
Süper Lig	Turkey	1	2.5%	60
Pro League	United-Arab-Emirates	1	1.5%	40
1. Division	Cyprus	1	0.8%	38
Premier League	Russia	1	0.1%	55

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-07-09 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -6.5 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

5 verified outlets for DR Congo (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.