Brazil
Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-07-09.
Squad
26 players · prior-season club data-
1 Alisson Becker €17.0M 33 yrLiverpool · Premier League84 caps · 23 since 2024 (7.05rtg)
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23 Ederson €15.0M 32 yrFenerbahçe · Süper Lig33 caps · 11 since 2024 (6.73rtg)
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12 Weverton €700k 38 yrPalmeiras · Serie A11 caps · 1 since 2024 (6.6rtg)
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4 Marquinhos €30.0M 31 yrParis Saint Germain · Ligue 1109 caps · 7G · 31 since 2024 (1G/0A · 7.209090909090909rtg)
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13 Danilo €2.5M 34 yrFlamengo · Supercopa do Brasil76 caps · 1G · 25 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.681368821292776rtg) | club 3G · 3A · 7.227027 rtg
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6 Alex Sandro €2.0M 34 yrFlamengo · Supercopa do Brasil47 caps · 2G · 7 since 2024 (2G/0A · 6.42112676056338rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.9 rtg
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3 Gabriel Magalhães €20.0M 28 yrArsenal · Premier League25 caps · 1G · 25 since 2024 (1G/1A · 7.4rtg) | club 3G · 4A · 7.36 rtg
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16 Douglas Santos €8.0M 31 yrZenit · Premier League13 caps · 12 since 2024 (0G/2A · 7.001779359430605rtg) | club 1G · 7.18 rtg
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14 Bremer €35.0M 28 yrJuventus · Serie A9 caps · 1G · 6 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.549438202247191rtg) | club 4G · 3A · 7.13 rtg
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24 Ibañez €28.0M 27 yrAl-Ahli Jeddah · Pro League9 caps · 7 since 2024 (6.6rtg) | club 2G · 2A · 7.31 rtg
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15 Léo Pereira €1.2M 29 yrFlamengo · Serie A5 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.586956521739131rtg) | club 4G · 7.23 rtg
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5 Casemiro €8.0M 33 yrManchester United · Premier League92 caps · 11G · 21 since 2024 (4G/3A · 7.449893390191898rtg) | club 9G · 2A · 7.19 rtg
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20 Lucas Paquetá €35.0M 28 yrWest Ham · Premier League68 caps · 14G · 26 since 2024 (5G/6A · 7.33878787878788rtg) | club 4G · 1A · 6.89 rtg
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7 Vinícius Júnior €180.0M 25 yrReal Madrid · La Liga55 caps · 14G · 32 since 2024 (11G/6A · 7.966101694915254rtg) | club 16G · 5A · 7.51 rtg
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11 Raphinha €50.0M 29 yrBarcelona · La Liga42 caps · 11G · 26 since 2024 (6G/4A · 6.39349593495935rtg) | club 13G · 3A · 7.55 rtg
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8 Bruno Guimarães €75.0M 28 yrNewcastle · Premier League49 caps · 3G · 37 since 2024 (2G/8A · 7.227504911591356rtg) | club 9G · 5A · 7.47 rtg
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22 Gabriel Martinelli €45.0M 24 yrArsenal · Premier League29 caps · 4G · 23 since 2024 (4G/0A · 6.992452830188681rtg) | club 1G · 4A · 6.6 rtg
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17 Fabinho €38.0M 32 yrAl-Ittihad FC · Pro League37 caps · 8 since 2024 (6.67485380116959rtg) | club 1G · 3A · 7.13 rtg
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18 Danilo Santos €40.0M 24 yrBotafogo · Serie A9 caps · 2G · 9 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.135555555555556rtg) | club 0G · 3A · 7.008333 rtg
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10 Neymar Top scorer €50.0M 33 yrSantos · Serie A130 caps · 80G · 6 since 2024 (3G/3A · 6.635135135135135rtg) | club 8G · 1A · 7.37 rtg
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9 Matheus Cunha €45.0M 26 yrManchester United · Premier League29 caps · 4G · 21 since 2024 (4G/2A · 7.216753926701571rtg) | club 10G · 2A · 7.13 rtg
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19 Endrick €40.0M 19 yrLyon · Ligue 122 caps · 4G · 22 since 2024 (4G/0A · 6.468627450980391rtg) | club 5G · 7A · 7.09 rtg
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21 Luiz Henrique €24.0M 24 yrZenit · Premier League17 caps · 2G · 17 since 2024 (2G/3A · 6.467521367521368rtg) | club 6G · 3A · 6.99 rtg
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25 Thiago Top minutes €1.0M 24 yrBrentford · Premier League6 caps · 2G · 6 since 2024 (2G/2A · 6.802564102564103rtg) | club 22G · 1A · 6.94 rtg
Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾
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26 Rayan 19 yrVasco DA Gama · 7c/2g
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2 Éderson Silva 22 yr
Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from
media.api-sports.io.
Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle).
Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.
Recent form
last 6Group fixtures
4 matches| Date | Match | P(BRA win) | P(draw) | Shape |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-13 | H vs Morocco (MAR) | 44.8% | 31.9% | |
| 2026-06-19 | H vs Haiti (HAI) | 82.7% | 9.8% | |
| 2026-06-24 | A vs Scotland (SCO) | 64.8% | 22.2% | |
| 2026-06-29 | H vs Japan (JPN) | 64.0% | 21.0% |
What the squad is worth
Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees.
Where the squad plays
26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes| League | Country | Players | Minutes share | Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premier League | England | 8 | 33.0% | 100 |
| Serie A | Brazil | 5 | 18.7% | 70 |
| Pro League | Saudi-Arabia | 2 | 8.9% | 60 |
| Supercopa do Brasil | Brazil | 2 | 8.9% | 70 |
| Serie A | Italy | 2 | 8.2% | 88 |
| La Liga | Spain | 2 | 7.5% | 95 |
| Premier League | Russia | 2 | 7.0% | 55 |
| Ligue 1 | France | 2 | 4.0% | 80 |
| Süper Lig | Turkey | 1 | 3.8% | 60 |
Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.
What the model can't see
The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.
As of 2026-07-09 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.
Squad club-strength runs -5.2 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.
Current injury records in the latest feed: Neymar, Neymar, Neymar, Raphinha, Raphinha, Raphinha, Lucas Paquetá, Lucas Paquetá.
4 verified outlets for Brazil (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.