← Group D

Group D · AUS · outside top-16

Australia

Strength

75.9

± 1.5

Attack

73.9

0–100

Defense

78.3

0–100

P(champion)

0.44%

1.5% reach final

Strength trajectory

75.1 → 76.1 · +1.0

2023-03-31 range 75.0–76.1 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31

Model and markets

Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗

Our model

0.44%

to lift

Polymarket

0.1%

implied · +0.3pp

Kalshi

0.1%

implied · +0.4pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-07-09.

Tournament path (model baseline)

Group 1st

22.8%

R16

32.5%

Quarter

12.3%

Semi

4.4%

Final

1.5%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data

Home venue

Accor Stadium

Sydney · 82,000 seats (WC avg 55,865; +26,135)

Age profile

mean 26.4 / WC 27.0

Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).

GK Goalkeepers · 3

1 M. Ryan €2.0M 33 yr

Levante · La Liga

104 caps · 15 since 2024 (6.5rtg)
18 P. Beach €1.0M 22 yr

Melbourne City · A-League

6 caps · 6 since 2024 (7.482463465553236rtg)
12 P. Izzo €600k 30 yr

Randers FC · Superliga

4 caps · 4 since 2024 (7.83rtg)

DEF Defenders · 8

19 H. Souttar 27 yr

Leicester · Championship

43 caps · 11G · 19 since 2024 (2G/0A · 7.086832740213524rtg) | club 1G · 8.2 rtg
2 M. Degenek €450k 31 yr

TSC Backa Topola · Super Liga

54 caps · 10 since 2024 (6.6rtg) | club 1G · 6.86 rtg
21 C. Burgess €500k 30 yr

Swansea · Championship

31 caps · 24 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.65rtg)
3 A. Circati Top minutes €12.0M 22 yr

Parma · Serie A

16 caps · 15 since 2024 (7.282857142857143rtg) | club 1G · 6.99 rtg
6 J. Geria €350k 32 yr

Albirex Niigata · J1 League

14 caps · 13 since 2024 (6.815094339622641rtg)
4 J. Italiano €600k 24 yr

Grazer AK · Bundesliga

7 caps · 7 since 2024 (6.430797101449276rtg) | club 4G · 7.12 rtg
15 K. Trewin €1.8M 24 yr

Melbourne City · A-League

6 caps · 6 since 2024 (6.241340782122905rtg)
25 L. Herrington €4.5M 18 yr

Brisbane Roar · A-League

5 caps · 5 since 2024 (6.605232558139535rtg) | club 1G · 7.12 rtg

MID Midfielders · 12

22 J. Irvine 32 yr

FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga

87 caps · 13G · 24 since 2024 (3G/1A · 7.140356083086054rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.7 rtg
7 M. Leckie Top scorer 34 yr

Melbourne City · A-League

84 caps · 14G · 5 since 2024 (14G/0A · 6.492517006802721rtg) | club 0G · 1A · 6.89 rtg
16 A. Behich €550k 35 yr

Melbourne City · A-League

84 caps · 3G · 21 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.6703947368421055rtg) | club 3G · 2A · 7.13 rtg
11 A. Mabil €1.3M 30 yr

Castellón · Segunda División

38 caps · 8G · 5 since 2024 (8G/0A · 6.6rtg) | club 3G · 6A · 6.69 rtg
23 N. Velupillay €650k 24 yr

Melbourne Victory · A-League

35 caps · 6G · 35 since 2024 (6G/1A · 6.289690721649484rtg) | club 4G · 1A · 6.78 rtg
10 A. Hrustic €600k 29 yr

Heracles · Eredivisie

39 caps · 4G · 14 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.836633663366337rtg) | club 1G · 6A · 6.83 rtg
8 C. Metcalfe €1.5M 26 yr

FC St. Pauli · Bundesliga

39 caps · 2G · 23 since 2024 (2G/5A · 6.910772833723653rtg) | club 0G · 2A · 6.56 rtg
5 J. Bos €5.0M 23 yr

Feyenoord · Eredivisie

30 caps · 2G · 21 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.6799019607843135rtg) | club 4G · 7A · 7.19 rtg

+ 4 more in the broader pool

ATT Attackers · 3

9 M. Touré 21 yr

Randers FC · Superliga

14 caps · 2G · 13 since 2024 (2G/1A · 6.46060606060606rtg) | club 4G · 3A · 6.79 rtg
20 C. Volpato 22 yr

Sassuolo · Serie A

| club 2G · 4A · 6.75 rtg
26 T. Yengi 25 yr

Livingston · Premiership

| club 2G · 6.76 rtg

Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾

MID · additional

13 A. O Neill 27 yr

New York City FC · 34c
17 N. Irankunda 19 yr

Watford · 18c/4g
24 Paul Okon-Engstler 20 yr

Sydney · 9c
14 C. Devlin 27 yr

Heart Of Midlothian · 5c

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6

D 1–1 vs EGY

D 0–0 v PAR

L 0–2 @ USA

W 2–0 v TUR

D 1–1 @ SUI

L 0–1 v MEX

Group fixtures

3 matches

Date	Match	P(AUS win)	P(draw)
2026-06-13	H vs Turkey (TUR)	35.2%	28.1%
2026-06-19	A vs United States (USA)	31.2%	27.2%
2026-06-25	A vs Paraguay (PAR)	33.8%	34.1%

What the squad is worth

Squad market value

€53.0M

Rank in the field

36 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees.

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes

Weighted strength

59.3/100

vs model strength -16.6

Top-5 leagues

20%

Unrated leagues

League	Country	Players	Minutes share	Strength
A-League	Australia	7	23.5%	42
Championship	England	3	13.9%	55
Eredivisie	Netherlands	2	9.4%	72
Serie A	Italy	2	8.2%	88
Premiership	Scotland	2	7.6%	50
Superliga	Denmark	2	7.6%	50
La Liga	Spain	1	7.1%	95
Bundesliga	Germany	2	4.9%	90
Bundesliga	Austria	1	4.5%	52
Major League Soccer	USA	1	4.1%	50
Segunda División	Spain	1	3.8%	50
J1 League	Japan	1	3.2%	55
Super Liga	Serbia	1	2.3%	45

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-07-09 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -16.6 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

Current injury records in the latest feed: M. Leckie, M. Leckie, J. Italiano, J. Italiano.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Australia (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.