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Group J · ARG

Argentina

Strength
86.5
± 1.8
Attack
85.1
0–100
Defense
87.5
0–100
P(champion)
11.76%
19.3% reach final
Strength trajectory
85.7 → 86.7 · +1.0
2023-03-31 range 85.5–87.1 · 13 quarters 2026-03-31
Model and markets
Polymarket ↗ · Kalshi ↗
Our model
11.76%
to lift
Polymarket
20.0%
implied · -8.3pp
Kalshi
18.8%
implied · -7.0pp

Implied is de-vigged per venue (proportional normalization). Δ is the model minus that venue; when they disagree by more than ~2pp the direction is more interesting than either number alone. Snapshot 2026-07-09.

Tournament path (model baseline)
Group 1st
74.2%
R16
63.0%
Quarter
46.0%
Semi
31.5%
Final
19.3%

Squad

26 players · prior-season club data
Home venue
Estadio Mâs Monumental
Buenos Aires · 85,018 seats (WC avg 55,865; +29,153)
Age profile
mean 28.1 / WC 27.0
U-22 22–25 26–29 30–33 34+
Solid bars: this squad. Shaded behind: WC2026 average (1248 players).
GK Goalkeepers · 3
  • 23 E. Martínez €15.0M 33 yr
    Aston Villa · Premier League
    64 caps · 34 since 2024 (6.65625rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.98 rtg
  • 12 G. Rulli €9.0M 33 yr
    Marseille · Ligue 1
    7 caps · 3 since 2024 (7.37rtg)
  • 1 J. Musso €5.0M 31 yr
    Atletico Madrid · La Liga
    3 caps · 1 since 2024
DEF Defenders · 8
  • 19 N. Otamendi €1.0M 37 yr
    Benfica · Primeira Liga
    133 caps · 7G · 32 since 2024 (3G/0A · 6.825563909774436rtg)  |  club 2G · 7.41 rtg
  • 3 N. Tagliafico €8.0M 33 yr
    Lyon · Ligue 1
    79 caps · 1G · 30 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.630303030303031rtg)  |  club 0G · 3A · 6.68 rtg
  • 26 N. Molina €15.0M 27 yr
    Atletico Madrid · La Liga
    63 caps · 1G · 33 since 2024 (1G/2A · 6.5262820512820525rtg)  |  club 2G · 2A · 6.79 rtg
  • 13 C. Romero €60.0M 27 yr
    Tottenham · Premier League
    53 caps · 4G · 31 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.319364161849711rtg)  |  club 4G · 1A · 7.13 rtg
  • 4 G. Montiel 28 yr
    River Plate · Liga Profesional Argentina
    41 caps · 2G · 18 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.776923076923077rtg)  |  club 3G · 4A · 7.22 rtg
  • 14 E. Palacios €30.0M 27 yr
    Bayer Leverkusen · Bundesliga
    43 caps · 18 since 2024 (0G/3A · 6.9rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 7.09 rtg
  • 6 Lisandro Martínez 27 yr
    Manchester United · Premier League
    30 caps · 2G · 14 since 2024 (2G/1A · 7.723076923076923rtg)
  • 25 F. Medina 26 yr
    Marseille · Ligue 1
    11 caps · 8 since 2024 (0G/1A · 7.0rtg)  |  club 0G · 1A · 6.81 rtg
MID Midfielders · 9
  • 5 L. Paredes €5.0M 31 yr
    Boca Juniors · Liga Profesional Argentina
    84 caps · 5G · 30 since 2024 (5G/0A · 7.591071428571429rtg)  |  club 1G · 4A · 7.76 rtg
  • 7 R. De Paul €15.0M 31 yr
    Inter Miami · Major League Soccer
    90 caps · 2G · 36 since 2024 (2G/3A · 7.188819875776398rtg)  |  club 1G · 4A · 7.12 rtg
  • 11 G. Lo Celso 29 yr
    Real Betis · La Liga
    67 caps · 5G · 23 since 2024 (3G/3A · 7.9rtg)  |  club 2G · 3A · 7.01 rtg
  • 20 A. Mac Allister €85.0M 27 yr
    Liverpool · Premier League
    50 caps · 6G · 33 since 2024 (5G/3A · 6.692124105011933rtg)  |  club 2G · 4A · 6.71 rtg
  • 24 E. Fernández Top minutes €85.0M 24 yr
    Chelsea · Premier League
    44 caps · 7G · 31 since 2024 (5G/5A · 7.346153846153846rtg)  |  club 10G · 4A · 7.18 rtg
  • 16 T. Almada €20.0M 24 yr
    Atletico Madrid · La Liga
    18 caps · 4G · 14 since 2024 (3G/3A · 6.755399061032865rtg)  |  club 3G · 1A · 6.83 rtg
  • 17 G. Simeone €40.0M 23 yr
    Atletico Madrid · La Liga
    12 caps · 1G · 12 since 2024 (1G/0A · 6.2rtg)  |  club 4G · 6A · 6.93 rtg
  • 8 V. Barco €13.0M 21 yr
    Strasbourg · Ligue 1
    3 caps · 3 since 2024 (6.8999999999999995rtg)  |  club 2G · 4A · 7.14 rtg
+ 1 more in the broader pool
ATT Attackers · 6
  • 10 L. Messi Top scorer €35.0M 38 yr
    Inter Miami · Major League Soccer
    177 caps · 114G · 28 since 2024 (20G/8A · 9.35609756097561rtg)  |  club 35G · 23A · 8.6 rtg
  • 22 Lautaro Martínez 28 yr
    Inter · Serie A
    80 caps · 37G · 32 since 2024 (16G/5A · 6.625093632958801rtg)  |  club 17G · 6A · 7.08 rtg
  • 9 J. Álvarez €100.0M 25 yr
    Atletico Madrid · La Liga
    57 caps · 14G · 35 since 2024 (7G/3A · 6.398615916955016rtg)  |  club 8G · 4A · 6.97 rtg
  • 15 N. González €35.0M 27 yr
    Atletico Madrid · La Liga
    55 caps · 6G · 31 since 2024 (2G/5A · 6.688571428571429rtg)  |  club 5G · 6.91 rtg
  • 18 N. Paz €65.0M 21 yr
    Como · Serie A
    10 caps · 1G · 10 since 2024 (1G/1A · 6.614084507042253rtg)  |  club 12G · 6A · 7.31 rtg
  • 21 J. López €250k* 25 yr
    Palmeiras · Serie A
    4 caps · 4 since 2024 (0G/1A · 6.5rtg)  |  club 12G · 2A · 7.21 rtg
Show full senior pool · 26 players ▾
MID · additional
  • 2 M. Senesi 28 yr

Source: API-Football squad & player endpoints; portraits cached from media.api-sports.io. Caps & international goals from the 2024 senior cycle (2024-25 UEFA cycle). Roster reflects the broader senior pool — final WC2026 26-player squads arrive ~2026-06-02.

Recent form

last 6
W 3–2 vs EGY
W 3–2 vs CPV
W 3–1 v JOR
W 2–0 v AUT
W 3–0 v ALG
W 3–0 vs Iceland

Group fixtures

3 matches
Date Match P(ARG win) P(draw) Shape

What the squad is worth

Squad market value
€798.2M
Rank in the field
7 / 48

Source: Transfermarkt estimated market values, as of 2026-06-15. A market read on squad talent — complementary to the results-based model rating, which knows nothing about transfer fees.

Where the squad plays

26 of 26 with on-pitch minutes
Weighted strength
84.1/100
vs model strength -2.4
Top-5 leagues
75%
Unrated leagues
0%
League Country Players Minutes share Strength
Premier League England 5 23.6% 100
La Liga Spain 7 20.5% 95
Ligue 1 France 5 19.0% 80
Serie A Italy 2 10.1% 88
Major League Soccer USA 2 8.9% 50
Liga Profesional Argentina Argentina 2 6.6% 62
Primeira Liga Portugal 1 5.2% 70
Serie A Brazil 1 4.0% 70
Bundesliga Germany 1 2.2% 90

Source: API-Football squad & player-statistics endpoints, prior season. League strength is a curated 0–100 scale anchored at Premier League = 100; leagues marked unrated fall back to a low default and surface as a punch-list to extend the table.

Context

What the model can't see

The model reads past results only. Squad, club form, and availability are shown here alongside its numbers — sourced and dated. They do not move the forecast.

Squad snapshot

As of 2026-07-09 · 26 players in the latest club-form pull.

Squad club-strength runs -2.4 versus the model's rating — context for where results and squad quality diverge.

Availability

No current injury records in the latest feed.

Sources

4 verified outlets for Argentina (federation, native-language, English fallback). Any context cited here comes only from these.