Group A · Matchday 18 · 2026-06-28
South Africa vs Canada
Inglewood, nan
Full time
RSA 0–1 CAN
The forecast below is what the agent published before kickoff.
Most likely scoreline
0–0
13.4%
33.8%
RSA win
28.5%
Draw
37.8%
CAN win
Top scorelines
- 0–0 13.4%
- 0–1 12.6%
- 1–0 11.8%
- 1–1 11.1%
Total goals
0 to 10 goals · most likely → tallest
Last 5 — RSA
+0.30 pts/match
vs model expectation
· opp. avg #69
- NIC #151 -1.5
- JAM #91 -0.6
- MEX #20 -0.7
- CZE #43 -0.1
- KOR #40 +1.9
GF / GA last 10: 9 / 12
Last 5 — CAN
-0.30 pts/match
vs model expectation
· opp. avg #58
- TUN #53 -0.7
- UZB #69 +1.0
- BIH #64 -0.9
- QAT #87 +0.7
- SUI #16 -1.1
GF / GA last 10: 14 / 6
Head-to-head (last 5)
- 2007-11-20 South Africa 2–0 Canada
▸ Full score grid (7×7)
P(home goals × away goals), %
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
13.4
12.6
7.1
3.1
1.2
0.4
0.1
1
11.8
11.1
6.3
2.7
1.0
0.4
0.1
2
6.2
5.8
3.3
1.5
0.5
0.2
0.1
3
2.6
2.4
1.4
0.6
0.2
0.1
0.0
4
0.9
0.8
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
5
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
6
0.1
0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Rows = RSA goals; columns = CAN goals. Above-diagonal cells are home wins; diagonal = draws; below = away wins. Truncated at 6 — the joint mass past that is < 1 %.
Expected goals (Poisson rate, λ)
1.07
RSA
1.16
CAN
Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.
News context — injuries, suspensions, projected XI — is not part of the model, which sees only past results.