Uruguay vs Spain

The model already favours Spain (50% away win), and the supplied intel reinforces that lean: Spain's superior recent form, dominant head-to-head record, and Uruguay's key absences (Arrascaeta, Araújo) all point away from Uruguay. Squad market value also heavily favours Spain. I increased Spain's win probability from 50% to 54% and reduced Uruguay's from 22% to 18%, keeping the draw near the prior because the draw is still plausible given Spain's slight underperformance vs expectations. The moderate altitude and drizzle are neutral. Spain's expected goals (1.40) and Uruguay's (0.76) from the model are retained, as the intel does not suggest a major shift in goal expectation. The most likely scorelines remain 0-1, 0-0, and 1-1, with a slight tilt toward Spain winning by multiple goals given their squad edge and Uruguay's missing defenders.

• Recent form
  Uruguay LDDDD (-0.95 pts/match vs expectation vs avg opp rank #44); Spain DDWDW (-0.46 vs expectation vs avg opp rank #60). Both underperform, but Spain's recent results are slightly better. → favours Spain
• Head-to-head
  Spain have won 4 of 5 meetings since 1991, including 2-1 and 3-1 in 2013; Uruguay's only non-loss was a 2-2 draw in 1995. → favours Spain
• Availability
  Uruguay missing key players G. de Arrascaeta and R. Araújo (both listed unavailable via API-Football, 2026-06-26). Spain have no reported absences in the supplied intel. → favours Spain
• Key players
  Spain's marquee includes Lamine Yamal (25 caps, 7G, recent 7.88 rating) and Rodri; Uruguay's top players Valverde, Núñez, Giménez are available but Arrascaeta and Araújo out. Spain's squad depth is superior. → favours Spain
• Squad market value
  Spain ranks 3rd (96th pct), Uruguay 10th (81st pct); Spain's squad ~2.1x more valuable. This agrees with the model's away-favoured prior. → favours Spain
• Recent news
  News from ynetnews (2026-05-18) indicates Lamine Yamal expected to miss start of World Cup due to injury. However, this match is on 2026-06-27, and no update confirms he is still out; the news is over a month old and may be outdated. The supplied intel does not list Yamal as unavailable for this match. → no bearing
• Conditions
  Zapopan at 1551m altitude, 20.4°C, light drizzle. Moderate altitude may affect conditioning, but both teams are professional; no extreme heat or controlled roof. Conditions are neutral. → no bearing
• Model vs market
  No market lines supplied; model gives Spain 50% win, Uruguay 22%, draw 28%. Squad value and key absences support moving slightly further toward Spain. → favours Spain

• 0–1 24%
• 0–2 18%
• 0–0 16%
• 1–1 15%
• 1–2 12%
• 0–3 10%

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.