Germany vs Ivory Coast

The model's prior (56% home win) is supported by Germany's squad value edge and key player quality, but Ivory Coast's recent form against stronger opponents (+1.74 pts/match vs rank #27) is impressive, and the head-to-head is a single old draw. The off-field distraction of Wahi's denied entry slightly favours Germany. Overall, I keep Germany as favourites but trim the win probability slightly to 55% to reflect Ivory Coast's strong form, leaving draw at 25% and away win at 20%. Germany's expected goals of 1.75 suggest they are likely to score 1-2 goals; Ivory Coast's 0.85 xG suggests they can score but are less likely to keep a clean sheet. The most probable scorelines are 1-0, 2-0, and 1-1, consistent with a moderately low-scoring match where Germany controls play.

• Recent form
  Germany have won all 5 recent matches, over-performing by +0.58 pts/match vs opponents averaging rank #59; Ivory Coast have won 4 of 5, over-performing by +1.74 pts/match vs opponents averaging rank #27. → favours Ivory Coast (stronger opponents, bigger over-performance)
• Head-to-head
  Only one meeting: a 2-2 draw in 2009. → no bearing (single match, 17 years ago)
• Availability
  No injuries or suspensions reported for either side. → no bearing
• Key players
  Germany's key players (Havertz, Wirtz, Kimmich) have high recent ratings and play for top clubs; Ivory Coast's Diallo has strong recent form (5G/2A in 11 apps) but others (Kessié, Sangaré) have moderate ratings. → favours Germany (deeper quality at elite clubs)
• Squad market value
  Germany ranks 8th, Ivory Coast 9th in squad value; Germany's squad is ~1.6x more valuable. → favours Germany (squad value edge, but narrow)
• Recent news
  Ivory Coast's Elye Wahi was denied entry to Canada amid a betting probe, a potential distraction; Germany's news is routine squad announcements. → favours Germany (off-field disruption for Ivory Coast)
• Conditions
  24.5°C, clear, 34% humidity, 14 km/h wind; typical mild conditions, no extreme heat or altitude. → no bearing (neutral conditions)
• Model vs market
  Model gives Germany 56% win probability, 1.75-0.85 expected goals; no market lines supplied to compare. → no bearing (no market divergence to assess)

• 1–0 19%
• 1–1 16%
• 2–0 15%
• 0–0 14%
• 2–1 14%
• 0–1 11%

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.