Mexico vs South Korea

The model's prior (48/27/25) is a strong baseline, but Mexico's superior recent form against tougher opponents, historical head-to-head advantage at home, and slight altitude edge justify a modest increase in home win probability to 50% and a corresponding decrease in away win to 23%. The draw probability stays at 27% as South Korea's key players (Son, Lee Kang-In) can create chances. No strong counter-factors push toward South Korea. Mexico's expected goals (1.43) and South Korea's (0.90) from the model suggest a low-scoring affair. The most likely scorelines are 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (12%), and 1-1 (11%), consistent with a tight match where Mexico's slight edge yields a narrow win or draw.

• Recent form
  Mexico DWWWW, +1.09 pts/match vs expectation vs avg opponent rank #38; South Korea LLWWW, +0.53 pts/match vs avg opponent rank #75. Both over-perform, but Mexico's form is stronger against tougher opponents. → favours Mexico
• Head-to-head
  Last 5: Mexico 2-2, 3-2, 2-1, 4-0, 0-1. Mexico unbeaten in 4 of last 5, with 3 wins and 1 draw at home. → favours Mexico
• Availability
  No injuries or suspensions reported for either side. → no bearing
• Key players
  Mexico's key players (Jiménez, Pineda, Álvarez, Vega, Alvarado) have strong club form; South Korea's Son (12G/5A for LAFC), Lee Kang-In (2G/9A for PSG), Hwang Hee-Chan (2G/2A for Wolves) are also in good form. Slight edge to Mexico in depth. → favours Mexico
• Squad market value
  Mexico ranks 26th (47th pct), South Korea 32nd (34th pct); Mexico's squad ~1.5x more valuable. This agrees with the model's prior. → favours Mexico (agrees with prior)
• Recent news
  Heavy.com reports Mexico dealt 'unfortunate news' about a suspension/punishment ahead of the game, but no specific player absence is confirmed. Other news is routine squad/schedule info. → no bearing (unclear impact)
• Conditions
  Estadio Akron, 1551m altitude, 21.1°C, light drizzle, 69% humidity. Altitude may slightly favour Mexico (acclimated), but not extreme; conditions mild. → slightly favours Mexico
• Model vs market
  Model gives Mexico 48% win, draw 27%, South Korea 25%. No market lines supplied to compare. Squad value and form support a slight upward adjustment for Mexico. → supports slight increase in Mexico win probability

• 1–0 20%
• 0–0 17%
• 1–1 17%
• 2–0 14%
• 0–1 12%
• 2–1 12%

Independent-Poisson rates. W/D/L and the score grid integrate the full 13×13 joint under these two parameters.